BETTER BIOFUELS FROM GM? RIGHT

Sandia Lab predicts biofuel viability with new forecasting model; Study with General Motors shows that ethanol could displace a third of U.S. gasoline use by 2030—assuming technological innovations occur.
Emma Ritch, February 10, 2009 (Cleantech Group)

"Sandia National Laboratory said today that biofuels are a viable method to wean the U.S. off a third of its gasoline consumption by 2030, basing its findings on a new forecasting model that takes into account the land, water and transportation available today.

"According to the Biofuel Deployment Model [a joint study with General Motors], the U.S. could produce 21 billion gallons of cellulosic ethanol and 15 billion gallons of corn ethanol each year by 2022 without using land otherwise destined to produce crops."

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"That could ramp to 90 billion gallons of ethanol by 2030, displacing 60 billion gallons of gasoline because of its lower energy content. U.S. consumption of gasoline is expected to reach 180 billion gallons that year, up from about 140 billion gallons now.

"Scientists said it would take about the same amount of capital—about $400 billion—to increase domestic production by 60 billion gallons of petroleum as it would to produce 90 billion gallons of ethanol.

"The study noted that the U.S. has enough land to grow biofuel feedstocks without affecting the food supply. Feedstock plants such as poplar, willow and switchgrass could be grown on 37 million acres of pasture or idle crop land unsuitable for food production, or used as rotation crops…"

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"Ethanol can't currently be transported using today's distribution system of pipes, requiring the use of the rail system…The calculations assumed improved conversion processes from biomass to biofuel and improved cultivation of biofuel crops—variables that aren't ensured…the lab is looking for partners to help to expand the model to look broader or deeper at the market, potentially looking at the use of cellulosic ethanol in China…

"Still, biofuel isn't the long term solution to the U.S.'s transportation problems, noted Lawrence Burns, General Motors vice president of research and development…"