FORECAST IS FOR WIND

New forecasts aim to help with wind energy
Alysia Patterson, February 4, 2009 (AP)

"Federal researchers are developing pinpoint forecasts to help utilities predict which way the wind will blow — and how strong — so they'll know how much electricity their wind turbines will generate.

"The National Center for Atmospheric Research [NCAR] and Xcel Energy said Wednesday the new, advanced forecasts could cut consumers' costs and reduce pollution…

"Running coal and natural-gas plants just in case the wind doesn't produce enough power wastes money and releases damaging carbon dioxide into the atmosphere…NCAR, based in Boulder, Colo., has access to data the National Weather Service doesn't, so it can provide a more accurate forecast…"

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"…forecasts will use data from satellites, aircraft, weather radar, ground weather stations and sensors on wind turbines. The information will be fed into three NCAR systems: The Weather Research and Forecasting computer model, the Real-Time Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation System and the Dynamic Integrated foreCast System…Forecasts will be delivered every three hours.

"NCAR will develop a prototype model over the next 18 months and tweak it for 12 months after that before handing the operation over the Xcel…Test forecasts would be issued for Xcel wind farms in Colorado, Minnesota, New Mexico, Texas and Wyoming."

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"The National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colo., will develop mathematical formulas to calculate how much electricity the turbines will generate at different wind speeds…the new forecasts could save Xcel $10 million to $15 million over the first two years…NCAR initially developed the advanced weather forecasting model for the Department of Defense…

"Paul Gipe, a wind energy author who runs the Web site Wind-Works.org, calls the move a step in the right direction if the U.S. wants to hit the 80 percent clean-energy target suggested by former Vice President Al Gore…"