$20/GALLON GAS?

Visions of an Energy-Starved World
Devin Leonard, September 5, 2009 (NY Times)

"Christopher Steiner…author of $20 Per Gallon: How the Inevitable Rise in the Price of Gasoline Will Change Our Lives for the Better...a staff writer at Forbes and a civil engineer…[says there is a] dwindling supply and burgeoning demand for gasoline…[Oil gushers]…are a thing of the past, and he points to the booming economies of countries like India and China, which will enable hundreds of millions of new drivers to hit the highways…

"Ultimately, he contends, these forces will drive the price of fuel far beyond $4 a gallon. In each successive chapter of the book, he describes how an additional $2 price increase might affect us…“$20 Per Gallon” …[is] a book full of fanciful predictions, some of which should probably be taken seriously, though certainly not all of them. Here are just a few: $8 gasoline will doom most United States airlines. When gas reaches $10 a gallon, Disney World will close. At $12, suburbanites will no longer be able to afford McMansions or their long commutes. And, at $14, it will be too expensive for Wal-Mart to gas up the truck fleet that moves goods around the country."

From cpsteine via YouTube

"Mr. Steiner asserts that good would come from such a future…[forcing] us to upgrade our public transportation systems, renovate our cities, get around more on foot and eat more locally grown food…[as well as build New Energy, travel] on ultrafast trains…[and] by subway…

"…The book acknowledges that the transition will be difficult, but glosses over just how painful it could be for the losers in this new, green economy…[H]igh gas prices will force suburbanites to move into cities where they don’t need cars…[bringing] a renaissance in rust-belt cities like Cleveland or St. Louis. But cities like New York are already crowded…[W]hen suburbanites…descend on Brooklyn…rent will be…[unaffordable]…[E]xpensive gas [also] will create vacant suburban strip malls…[and] abandoned stores…when gas reaches $14 a gallon."

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"Mr. Steiner thinks that this development will lead to a rejuvenation of small towns. But if it’s too expensive for Wal-Mart to get diapers on the shelves, how will the mom-and-pop grocery on Main Street do it? You can’t get everything at the local farm.

"The book’s arguments are sometimes overstated in hyperbolic prose…But…If Mr. Steiner is correct about the future of gas prices, many people will disagree with his premise that their lives are better…"