THE INTENSITY OF EMISSIONS

Carbon intensity in focus as China's Hu heads to UN
Emma Graham-Harrison (w/Gerard Wynn and David Fox), September 21, 2009 (Reuters)

"China's President Hu Jintao may lay down a carbon intensity target for his country at [the UN Summit on Climate Change]…as he seeks to show Beijing's commitment to fighting climate change.

"A pledge from the world's biggest emitter to cut the amount of greenhouse gasses produced for each dollar of national income -- while short of an absolute cap on output -- would counter critics of Beijing who says it is taking too little action…It could also pressure other major emitters to kickstart stalled talks on a new framework to tackle global warming, and give the Chinese negotiating team a strong bottom line going into the key negotiations in Copenhagen this December."

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"A senior Chinese official has already promised an "important" speech laying out "the next policies, measures and actions that China is going to take", and in private bureaucrats say the speech will contain at least one numerical target…[A]nalysts, academics and campaigners say a carbon intensity goal would be in line both with domestic policies, and with a government commitment to keep economic development as its top priority even while it tackles major issues like climate change…

"A carbon target is earmarked for inclusion in China's still unpublished blueprint for development between 2011 and 2015…Beijing's worries about energy security and massive pollution had already prompted the introduction of an energy intensity target from 2006, but a carbon target will also speed up a planned boost in renewables like wind and hydropower…"

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"…[D]espite its roots in a domestic political agenda, if Hu unveils a carbon intensity target at the United Nations, his choice of timing and location has a resounding political message…A carbon target would be hard for China's critics in the United States to dismiss out of hand, because former President George W. Bush set a carbon intensity goal for his country after rejecting the Kyoto Protocol.

"It would appeal to those in the financial industry who hope to see China set up a carbon trading scheme, as the goal would boost Beijing's ability to measure output of the gasses…The target could also dovetail with plans touted by some players in the European Union to establish "sectoral carbon crediting", to extend the carbon market after 2012…[C]ompanies in sectors like steel and power that beat a certain emission or energy intensity benchmark would qualify for carbon offset credits which would be tradable in Europe's emissions trading scheme…[This] gives developing countries an financially viable way to contain emissions growth, although if economies expand too fast even massive improvements in efficiency might not be enough to contain dangerous emissions…"