…BUT WORSENING MORE SLOWLY

Rising prices will curtail energy consumption says DOE
John Funk, December 14, 2009 (Cleveland Plain Dealer)

"The American appetite for energy will grow by just 14 percent over the next quarter century as energy efficiency and high prices drive down demand, the U.S. Department of Energy said...

"In its annual long-term forecast, the department's Energy Information Administration predicted slower growth in overall energy demand and a shift toward renewable energy…[B]y 2035, fossil fuels like coal and oil will drop from today's 84 percent to about 78 percent…"

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"The report is silent on future gasoline prices, though it does forecast less of a dependence on foreign oil because of lower demand and a switch to biofuels. Natural gas prices are expected to climb…despite huge new U.S. production gains, because electric utilities are expected to switch to [cleaner-burning] natural gas…

"…[The] forecast does not include the impact of proposed climate change legislation now pending in Congress…[but it] predicts carbon dioxide emissions will grow at the rate of three-tenths of a percent a year, a forecast that would change if Congress were to require power plants, refineries and factories to capture and store carbon dioxide…"

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"Key points in this year's initial forecast…[1] Efficiency gains will reduce overall energy demand by 15 percent over the period…[2] The growth in demand for electricity will creep up at just 1 percent per year over the next 25 years despite population growth as mandated conservation programs in more than half the states, including Ohio, kick in…[3] Automobiles will average 40 miles per gallon by 2025, with hybrids dominating the market…[4] Biofuels, including corn ethanol and ethanol from grasses, combined with a slight up-tick in U.S. crude oil production, will lessen the nation's dependence on foreign oil…

"…[5] Coal-fired power plants, which now generate half of the power consumed in the nation (88 percent in Ohio), will decline to about 44 percent nationally. (No word on Ohio)…[6] Renewable technologies like wind and solar will surge from about 9 percent of all power produced now to 17 percent by 2035. Natural-gas fired generation will also increase…[7] U.S. natural gas production from shale and other unconventional sources will increase, pushing out imports from Canada and abroad. But new uses for gas will mean price increases, doubling today's prices..."