INSIDER'S GUIDE TO THE CLIMATE TALKS

Climate change talks: What to look for at Copenhagen; The Copenhagen climate change talks kicked off on Monday. A Q&A on the key areas that will define success or failure.
Peter Spotts, December 7, 2009 (Christian Science Monitor)

"…What might success in Copenhagen look like? …Three areas will be the keys to "success" in Copenhagen…[1] Emissions reductions…[for] wealthy countries and major developing countries like China, India and Brazil…[for] 2050…[and] 2020…[2]
Immediate action… after the meeting to reduce emissions, move new green technologies into the marketplace, and help developing countries adopt cleaner power…[and, 3] Money. How much…[will wealthy nations offer] to help poorer ones pay for green technologies they will need to spur economic growth in a climate-friendly way?…[P]rogress on those three objectives…[will be success]…[Failure will be] if it ends without a clear mandate to wrap up binding legal language on reducing emissions no later than December 2010…[because] the process is likely to unravel into prolonged haggling…

"Money also looms large. Many in the developing world say their richer counterparts need to pay to help them adjust to a changing climate and to reducing their own emissions. A clear, quick-start financing package for these poorer nations might offset developing country anger over what they view as limited emissions reductions promises by major industrial nations…Industrial countries want a transparent way to verify that developing countries are following through…[but some] developing countries say such oversight [threatens their] national sovereignty."

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"What are countries offering on greenhouse-gas reductions? …South Africa said it would slow the growth of its emissions to 34 percent below the current annual growth rate by 2020 and to 42 percent by 2025, as long as international aid is forthcoming…India has offered to improve its energy efficiency to 20 or 25 percent better than 2005 levels, provided it gets international money…China has offered up a 40 to 45 percent efficiency improvement on 2005. Brazil has put up actual emissions reductions of 36 to 39 percent below 1994 levels by 2020, if it gets financial help…Mexico has promised actions through 2012 that put it on track to reduce emissions by 50 percent by 2050…contingent on international aid.

"What is the combined effect of those emissions offers?…[Holding] warming to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) over preindustrial levels…[by] developed countries [cutting] their greenhouse-gas emissions by 25 to 40 percent by 2020 and by 80-95 percent by 2050. Developed countries must substantially reduce the growth rate in their emissions…But current promises on emissions reductions fall well short…Rich-countries have currently offered an 8 to 14 percent reduction below 1990 levels by 2020…Russia's numbers are…[so far below] the old Soviet Union…emissions could rise…and still meet the country's 2020 target…China's [and India’s targets are] widely seen as…falling into a business-as-usual category…"

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"What are the likely sticking points? …[Developing] countries whose populations are likely to suffer from the effects of climate change…[say] rich country targets are not ambitious enough…[and want] both short-term aid and long term aid…for adaptation efforts, the purchase of green technologies, and…[to] build in-house technical expertise…$10 billion a year over the next three years…[and] $100 billion a year through 2020…[For] that much money, [developed nations] want verification [of reducing emissions]…

"How much impact might 'Climategate' have?…Republican members of Congress are asking the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to forestall any effort to regulate carbon dioxide emissions under the Clean Air Act until a full, transparent investigation has taken place…Internationally, the Saudi Arabian's are using the hacked letters from the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit to argue that there's no need for any new climate treaty…The UN negotiating process requires unanimous consent…So the Saudis alone could hold things up. But the Saudis often threaten to block movement as a negotiating position…[and really want the agreement to] contain payments to Saudi Arabia to make up for oil revenues it would lose as the world weans itself from oil."