A MARKET LOOK AT SOLAR’S YEAR

The Real Story Behind Solar Energy in 2010
David Fessler, December 28, 2009 (Money Morning)

"By the time 2009 is in the books, the record will show that solar energy stocks endured a tough year…Analysts also expect the carnage to continue into 2010…

"…Analysts first suggest that a "huge" oversupply of polysilicon (the raw material used to make silicon-based panel assemblies)…[But] panel sales are rapidly eating into this oversupply…They [shortsightedly also] predict companies producing panels based on the new thin-film designs [can’t compete] because the oversupply of polysilicon will keep poly-based panel prices too low…[S]ome solar-energy companies will lose money in 2010. Others won't make it at all…[But the] market for solar photovoltaic panels (those that produce electricity) is increasing rapidly. It certainly isn't about to replicate the 1980s, when 400 solar panel manufacturers got whittled down to just five…"

click to enlarge

[Ron Kenedi, vice president of the Solar Energy Solutions Group, Sharp Corp:] "We're seeing growth in all segments of solar, starting in the last few months…We've seen growth in the residential sector and new ways for projects to be financed. Utility-scale projects are starting and even mainstream solar is starting. All segments of the solar industry are getting stronger."

[Zhengong Shi, chairman and chief executive officer, Suntech Power Holdings Co.:] "Last year, the Spanish market was almost half of the global market. Apart from the Spanish market, all other markets grew at 50% to 100%. That's a positive sign…We're excited about the U.S. market because the new administration is positive and supports rules for renewable and solar and there is increased awareness in the general public. We see our market share continuing to gain in the U.S."

Suntech, one of the powers in the solar industry, is planning on growth. (clikc to enlarge)

[Jerry Wolfe, CEO groSolar:] "The technology is in place and improving every year…We're finding that residential and commercial buildings are less expensive (with solar panels) than (if powered only by) a utility. People don't understand that. Our biggest problem is that solar requires a cultural change and acceptance. That's our biggest hurdle."

"…Resistance to change and the adjustment(s) that change requires is part of human nature…It only takes one word to sum up the one real force that is driving the solar industry, both now and in the future: Innovation. It's something that the United States has always prided itself on and that hasn't changed…One year from now, when many solar analysts are stuffed full of crow, the solar industry will still be introducing new products. And many solar companies will be well on their way to continued profitability in this promising sector of the alternative energy space."