THE POTENTIAL OF WATER

Hydrokinetic and Ocean Energy Renewable Power Generation from Ocean Wave, Tidal Stream, River Hydrokinetic, Ocean Current, and Ocean Thermal Technologies
Peter Ausmus and Clint Wheelock, 2Q 2009 (Pike Research)

"While the total installed capacity of emerging “second generation” marine hydrokinetic Resources… wave, tidal stream, ocean current, ocean thermal and river hydrokinetic resources…was less than 10 megawatts (MW) at the end of 2008, a recent surge in interest in these new renewable options has generated a buzz, particularly in the United Kingdom, Ireland, the United States, Portugal, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and Japan…[W]ithin the next five to eight years, these emerging technologies will become commercialized…[and] begin competing for a share of the burgeoning [New Energy] market…

"The United Nations (UN) estimates that the total “technically exploitable” potential for waterpower (including marine renewables) is 15 trillion kilowatt-hours (kWh), equal to half of the projected global electricity use in the year 2030…[R]oughly 15 percent has been developed so far. The UN and World Energy Council projects 250 gigawatts (GW) of hydropower will be developed by 2030…[J]ust 10 percent of this…represents 25 GW, a figure Pike Research believes is a valid possibility…"

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"…[H]undreds of technology designs from more than 100 firms are competing…The five technologies covered in this report are…[1] Tidal stream turbines…90 percent of today’s marine kinetic capacity…[Mostly] first generation “barrage” systems…[2] Wave energy technologies…Any western coastline in the world has wave energy potential…[3] River hydrokinetic technologies…the kinetic energy of moving water…particularly at
the mouth of a river way interacting with a sea and/or ocean…[4] Ocean current technologies…deeper ocean currents that are located offshore…[especially interesting because] the resource is 24/7…[5] Ocean thermal energy technologies…energy from the differences in temperature between the ocean surface and lower depths…[also] 24/7…

"…[T]he Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)…[found] the U.S. has the water resources to generate from 85,000 to 95,000 more megawatts from this non-carbon energy source, with 23,000 MW available by 2025…The superior energy content profile of all of the marine renewables translates into a distinct advantage…far less capital cost per unit of electricity generated…The downside for marine renewables is the unknown operations and maintenance (O&M) costs. Whereas O&M represents 10 percent of total project costs for solar, and 20 percent for wind, 40 percent is a ballpark guess for marine renewables…"

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"The demand for energy worldwide will continue to grow at a dramatic clip between 2009 and 2025…By 2015, Pike Research shows a potential of over 22 GW of all five [marine] technologies…The European Union’s (EU) Ocean Energy Agency has suggested that 10,000 MW could come on-line to meet EU demand by 2020, growing to 200,000 MW by 2050….The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has suggested that the five technologies profiled in this report could meet 2% of current U.S.electricity demand…

"By 2025, at least 25 GW of total marine renewables will be developed globally…If effective carbon regulations in the U.S. are in place by 2010, and marine renewable
targets established by various European governments are met, marine renewables and
river hydrokinetic technologies could provide as much as 200 GW by 2025: 115 GW wave; 57 GW tidal stream; 20 GW tidal barrage; 4 GW ocean current; 3 GW river hydrokinetic…"