A HARD LOOK AT SUN’S THIN FILM

The Future of Thin Film: Beyond the Hype; 2009 was undoubtedly a difficult year for most thin-film producers. What does the future hold?
Shyam Mehta, March 29, 2010 (Greentech Media)

"From only 17 MW in 2002 to 966 MW in 2008, thin film's rise over the last decade has been remarkable indeed. Fueled by the greatest success story in the PV industry -- cadmium telluride producer First Solar -- the technology has captured the imagination of industry participants and interested observers alike. First Solar represents the disruptive potential of thin-film PV in full: high throughput (1,011 megawatts in 2009), competitive efficiency (11%), and an industry-leading cost (currently 83 cents per watt), enabling significant profit… listed on the S&P index…[and] the largest PV module producer in the world…

"The search for alternative technologies led to a tidal wave of investment and entrepreneurial activity in thin film, with 46 companies entering the market between 2004 and 2008, as well as $1.8 billion in venture capital investment in the space. As market share rose from a mere 3% in 2001 to 12% in 2007, companies spoke confidently of hundreds of megawatts of production at below a dollar per watt being within arm's reach. It was only a matter of time before thin film would replace crystalline silicon as the dominant PV technology, finally enabling the long sought-after dream of grid parity…"

From Greentech Media (click thru for more info)

"…As of 2010, only one other company besides First Solar -- triple-junction amorphous silicon firm United Solar -- has produced in excess of 100 MW annually. The cost structure of most amorphous silicon, considering its low efficiency, is barely competitive with crystalline silicon, and CIGS producers have encountered technical issues in manufacturing…[C]capital constraints made banks and developers shy away…Asian crystalline silicon PV producers continue to ramp down costs and increase capacity beyond the gigawatt level…[T]thin film [may] fulfill its potential and make meaningful inroads into the solar energy landscape, creating new markets…Or [it may] be relegated to a bit-player role…

"…GTM Research's just-published report Thin Film 2010: Market Outlook through 2015…[offers a] set of insights…[1] Thin film capacity will exceed 10 GW by the end of 2012…[2] Best-practice producers across all technologies will achieve costs of 80 cents per watt by the beginning of 2012, but there will be significant variation across producers…[3] First Solar will continue its dominance, remaining the largest thin film manufacturer in the world over the next three years…"

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"[4] CIGS and amorphous silicon (particularly turnkey line production) will likely not see meaningful market share before 2013, after which cost reductions and efficiency improvements will finally start to drive a competitive product offering at an adequate margin…[5] High-margin thin film production will be a game played by the select few…[6] All signs point to one of the venture-backed CIGS companies (Solyndra, Nanosolar, Miasolé) emerging as successful representatives of this technology…7. The coming years should see a great deal more consolidation than has been witnessed so far in the thin film industry…

"…Only past 2013 will thin film adoption, the case of First Solar aside, begin to really take off, and developments over the next three years will play a crucial role in determining the exact pace of this transition…[S]uccess [may] arrive a lot later than expected. But [it is quite likely to] arrive…"