SHALE GALE

IHS CERA: Shale Gas can be a “Game Changer” for North America’s Energy Future; Provides potential for near-term CO2 cuts, but presents long-term challenges, study says
March 10, 2010 (IHS-CERA)

"The “shale gale” sweeping across North America the past few years has more than doubled the size of the discovered natural gas resource in North America—enough to satisfy more than 100 years of consumption at current rates…

…"Fueling North America’s Energy Future: The Unconventional Natural Gas Revolution and the Carbon Agenda, says that the shale gale, the recent expansion of natural gas resources, provides the potential to transform North America’s energy landscape…[It also] says that the emergence of shale gas has the potential to be a “game changer,” dramatically augmenting natural gas supply and opening new opportunities for competition among different energy sources…"

The Marcellus shale is the game-changer - and it also brought nat gas drilling to the public's attention. (click to enlarge)

"Growth in power demand over the coming two decades will likely lead natural gas demand for power generation to nearly double by 2030 from its current level of 19 billion cubic feet per day. Substitution of coal-fired generation with natural gas-fired power generation will result in short term greenhouse gas emission (GHG) reductions (a natural gas-fired plant has half the carbon emissions of coal-fired plants), but there is a limited pool of “spare” gas- fired capacity which prevents wholesale fuel switching…

"Simply replacing coal-fired generation with natural gas-fired units will not, however, allow the often discussed target of 80 percent reduction in GHG emissions by 2050 to be met. This will require the deployment of non-carbon emitting technologies including nuclear and renewable power as well as significant advances in carbon capture and storage (CCS)…"

Is the CERA report accurate about nat gas drilling being adequately regulated? (click to enlarge)

"However, water—both its use in hydraulic fracturing and the disposal and treatment of produced water—has emerged as the top environmental issue, particularly as the center of gravity of development moves from the traditional oil and gas producing areas to the more densely populated U.S. Northeast. While additional federal regulation is now being debated, the study points out that oil and gas drilling operations are tightly regulated or managed by states.

"The stringency of any future carbon reduction legislation and the viability of CCS technology, which has yet to be demonstrated at scale, are two major uncertainties facing natural gas’ future place in the generation fuel mix, the report concludes."