THE COMING CSP ROADMAP

International Energy Agency: Triggering the CSP revolution
Rikki Stancich, 16 April 2010 (CSP Today)

"…[I]n 2008, the International Energy Agency identified 17 key technologies that could be deployed for climate change mitigation, which it hoped would trigger a sea change in the global energy mix by 2050…The G8 leaders subsequently tasked the IEA with researching and compiling a collection of ‘road maps’ outlining key technologies and the policy recommendations for achieving emissions reductions by transitioning to an alternative energy mix…So far, four of the 17 roadmaps have been published for the CCS, wind energy, electric vehicles and cement sectors, with solar PV and CSP roadmaps to be published imminently…"

[Cédric Philibert, senior analyst, IEA’s Renewable Energy Division:] "We have demonstrated that CSP can provide 11 percent of global electricity by 2050 – of which 9.5 percent will be purely derived from solar and the rest from biogas or natural gas burnt as a back-up or in hybrid plants. CSP could also provide solar fuels substituting to a few percent of the global consumption of natural gas and liquid fuels for transport…We also looked at the possibility of non-concentrating solar power technology…which can be used in global irradiation but which do not require perfect direct normal irradiance…"

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[Cédric Philibert, senior analyst, IEA’s Renewable Energy Division:] "The CSP roadmap examines the four families of technologies – troughs, dishes, Fresnel and towers, and the options of storage systems, thermal fluids, power cycles available now and in the future…[W]e see a future for all the technologies…[S]ome options will be better for certain market segments…In this decade, the bulk of the market will be on peak and shoulder loads…[T]hermal storage or backup fuel from 2-4 hours are needed…Over the longer-term, we will need to extend the storage capacity in order to provide base load…during spring, summer and fall…Currently, the cost difference and the need for incentives for CSP are smaller on peak and intermediate loads, but once investment costs are down, CO2 is priced and storage becomes more stable, CSP will be able to compete with coal as a baseload energy…"

[Cédric Philibert, senior analyst, IEA’s Renewable Energy Division:] "Mass production, economies of scale and learning process will drive costs down…The optimal size of a solar field is between 100-350MW and several parks are being erected in proximity of one another to reduce plant costs…[A] 500MW CSP park is planned [for Morocco]…In other places, it is easier to start with relatively smaller plants – the permitting is easier, the height of the tower is lower and it is generally easier to get smaller plants connected to the existing grid…We are going to see both large scale and smaller scale CSP plants, and…increasing [CSP] market share…After 2020, the CSP markets could be operating without support mechanisms in most places…[I]n regions with low [Direct Normal Irradiance, DNI], it will take more time…"

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[Cédric Philibert, senior analyst, IEA’s Renewable Energy Division:] "The technological potential is unlimited. Technically, we can provide 100 percent of the electricity requirement, but this would require massive transport…A portfolio approach is definitely needed…[The] ultimate share of CSP technology to 35 to 40 percent in the sunniest regions, including southwest USA, Mexico, Latin America, North of Chile, Peru, North Africa, Australia, the Middle East, Central Asia, the Gujarat and Rajasthan provinces in India, Australia, South Africa…Much less in other places, such as the rest of the USA, Europe, and other areas of Latin America…We have been more cautious for China, there is not a good knowledge of the DNI…In some other countries, the prospect are rather bleak…"

[Cédric Philibert, senior analyst, IEA’s Renewable Energy Division:] "Support needs to be developed for public and private R&D. CSP R&D is very small compared to other energies such as CCS, nuclear, even other renewables…We need to develop research on all aspects of the life cycle as well as the manufacturing of fuels such as hydrogen and liquid fuels…[ R&D] is absolutely underfunded…We need to establish a set of incentives in each and every region where it possible to develop CSP…Incentives should be given to each solar kilowatt hour and to promote hybrid plants of every kind. There should not be any limit on the share of fossil fuel back-up, because as long as solar (CSP) is being brought into the mix, it is pushing the energy industry in the right direction…The support policy needs to reward the solar part, but leave the market decide which energy mix best meets the requirements of the utilities."