THE MILITARY SEES ENERGY’S FUTURE

The Joint Operating Environment [JOE] 2010
February 18, 2010 (U.S. Joint Forces Command)

"…[P]etroleum must continue to satisfy most of the demand for energy out to 2030. Assuming the most optimistic scenario for improved petroleum production through enhanced recovery means, the development of non-conventional oils (such as oil shales or tar sands) and new discoveries, petroleum production will be hard pressed to meet the expected future demand of 118 million barrels per day…

"Possible Future Energy Resources…Non-Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil: New sources (Caspian Sea, Brazil, Colombia, and new portions of Alaska and the Continental shelf) could offset declining production in mature fields over the course of the next quarter century. However, without drilling in currently excluded areas, they will add little additional capacity…Oil Sands and Shale…limited…Natural Gas…Russia [and uncertainty]…"

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"Biofuels…unlikely to contribute more than 1% of global energy requirements by the 2030s…[and] even that modest achievement could curtail the supply of foodstuffs to the world’s growing population, which would add another National Security challenge…Renewable…Wind and Solar combined are unlikely to account for more than 1% of global energy by 2030. That figure assumes the energy from such sources will more than triple, which alone would require major investments…Nuclear…it could play a major role in replacing coal-fired plants…[but] the disposal of nuclear waste remains politically controversial…

"…[N]o OPEC nation, except perhaps Saudi Arabia, is investing sufficient sums in new
technologies and recovery methods to achieve [needed] growth. Some, like Venezuela and Russia, are actually exhausting their fields…[T]he “arc of instability” running from North Africa through to Southeast Asia easily could become an “arc of chaos,” involving the military…OPEC nations will find it difficult to invest much of the cash inflows that oil exports bring…[P]resuming the forces propelling radical extremism at present do not dissipate, a portion of OPEC’s windfall might well find its way into…the hands of movements with deeply anti-modern, anti-Western goals…[and] increasing numbers of unemployed young men eager to attack their perceived enemies…"

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"During the next twenty-five years, coal, oil, and natural gas will remain indispensable…The discovery rate for new petroleum and gas fields over the past two decades (with the possible exception of Brazil) provides little reason for optimism that future efforts will find major new fields…By 2030, the world will require production of 118 MBD, but energy producers may only be producing 100 MBD…

"By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD…Efficient hybrid, electric, and flex-fuel vehicles will likely dominate light-duty vehicle sales by 2035…Renewed interest in nuclear power and green energy sources such as solar power, wind, or geothermal may blunt rising prices for fossil fuels should business interest become actual investment…"