WIND & WHAT EVERYBODY TALKS ABOUT IT

Learning Curve Continues in Use of Wind Forecasting Technologies: NREL-Funded Paper
Carl Levesque, June 4, 2010 (Wind Energy Weekly)

"As utilities and RTOs put wind forecasting through its paces and become more familiar with how to use it, they continue to rely on it primarily for ensuring grid reliability, according to a recently released paper…

"…Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America, was produced by Kevin Porter and Jennifer Rogers of Columbia, Md.-based Exeter Associates with funding from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and U.S. Department of Energy…[It] explains how different regions use wind power forecasting."

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"In addition to reviewing the advantages and disadvantages of wind power forecasting, the paper explores each program individually, noting when they came into operation, or expect to do so, and which wind power forecast vendor and model the organizations chose to provide the service. The tools and techniques used by the vendor to procure the forecasts are detailed in the paper, along with what data wind projects are required to submit in each region.

"… [O]ne conclusion reached…is that there is increasing interest in using centralized forecasting systems. But perhaps the most salient point…is that the wind forecasting space remains at a stage of cautious experimentation, with day-ahead forecasts still used first and foremost for reliability planning but not in the area believed to have the greatest impact on power prices—that is, for market decisions, such as when to bring online gas-fired plants and when to ramp them down. Such uses, assert an ever-growing catalogue of wind integration studies, can be the source for significant cost benefits through easing of pressure on natural gas and power prices…"