EV CHARGING WILL GET BIG

Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment; Charging Stations, Grid Interconnection Issues, EV Charging Business Models, and Vehicle-to-Grid Technology: Market Analysis and Forecasts
John Gartner and Clint Wheelock, 2Q 2010 (Pike Research)

"It is likely that 2010 will be remembered as a turning point in history…For the first time, electric vehicles (EVs) and EV charging equipment are being manufactured for a mass market of consumers…Concerns about transportation's contribution to climate change has brought…electrifying transportation to the attention of local and national government officials worldwide…EVs can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by up to 34% if the power comes from coal-fired power plants and by 60% if the plant runs on natural gas…

"…In the United States, EVs will cost approximately 75 cents per gasoline gallon equivalent when driving on electric power…[or less] depending on advancements in battery technology…The price of gasoline is expected to rise by approximately 65% between 2009 and 2015, while the price of electricity is likely to remain stable…[D]emand for EVs…[and charging stations] could increase dramatically…In other parts of the world…the economics for EVs and charging infrastructure are even better."

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"…The market for EVs (including plug-in hybrids) will grow to nearly 285,000 units by 2015. Globally, more than 3.1 million EVs will be sold between 2010 and 2015. These vehicles will spur the sale of 4.7 million units of charging equipment including residential equipment and standalone charging stations during the period from 2010 to 2015. Pike Research forecasts that annual revenue from EV charging equipment will reach $1.8 billion in 2015.

"…[T]he Asia Pacific region will be the world’s largest market for EVs and charging equipment…China, which in 2009 became the world’s largest automotive market, will represent more than one-third of the global market for charging equipment…[I]n North America, residential EV equipment sales will represent more than two-thirds of sales. In Europe and Asia…standalone charging equipment will represent the majority of sales…[U.S.] charging equipment sales during the first few years will be dominated by government purchased or subsidized sales…EV owners will predominantly charge at home where electricity costs approximately $1-$2 for a full charge. Government support around the globe is critical…"

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"The initial manufacturers of EV charging equipment have been mostly startup companies or companies involved in industrial EV charging…such as Coulomb Technologies, Better Place, and Optimization Technologies…The market for EV charging equipment is likely to become very crowded by the end of 2011 as large technology companies, such as General Electric, Panasonic, Samsung, Siemens, and Sanyo, are all developing EV charging products…EV charging will be a miniscule portion of electricity demand, even by 2015 (representing less than 0.05% of the grid load)…The electrification of transportation has the potential to accelerate the implementation of smart grid technologies and to modify consumer attitudes…

"The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) paves the way for more than 12,000 EV charging stations to be installed in five states…(Arizona, California, Oregon, Tennessee, and Washington)…In Europe and Asia, energy services companies including RWE in Germany, Dong Energy in Denmark, Korean Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO), and the Tokyo Electric Power Company are taking a much more active role in EV charging…The EV charging industry will evolve…Vehicle–to-Grid (V2G) services are now being studied…EVs that can be charged in a wide variety of public and residential charging locations are likely to be…about 2.5% of all vehicle sales by 2015…"