FIRE AND FLOOD, 1

Russia Fires, Pakistan Floods Linked? Extreme weather driven partly by global warming, experts say.
Christine Dell’Amore, August 11, 2010 (National Geographic)

"They're raging a continent apart, but two deadly natural disasters—the Russian wildfires and the Pakistan floods—may be connected by the Asian monsoon, one of the most powerful atmospheric forces on the planet, scientists say…[T]he monsoon—a seasonal wind system that brings rain and floods to Pakistan and much of the rest of Asia in summer—also drives the circulation of air as far away as Europe…

"Air pumped into the upper atmosphere by monsoon winds has to come down somewhere. And with the monsoon's giant reach, much of that air seems to be settling over Russia, where it's creating high-pressure conditions, which favor heat waves…Near high-pressure systems, air tends to sink, which discourages clouds from forming."

hot Russian girl (click to enlarge)

"Such circulation patterns are normal, but they're also being enhanced by rising sea temperatures due in part to global warming…[T]he northern Indian Ocean has warmed 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.1 degrees Celsius) since the 1970s. Warmer water releases more moisture into the air, which can supercharge monsoon rains…[I]t's not just natural variability and not just global warming…but a combination of both…[T]he last months of a recent El Niño—a cyclical warming of tropical waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean—likely contributed to the high sea temperatures in the Indian Ocean…

"…[T]he monsoon link between the Russia fires and Pakistan floods is difficult to prove, since it's based on observations and interpretations of past research…This year's fierce monsoon rains have spawned Pakistan's worst flooding in 80 years, affecting nearly 14 million people…And in Russia, widespread fires are stoked by the worst heat wave in Russian memory…[with] temperatures have hovered around 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 degrees Celsius) for weeks and show no sign of letting up soon…"

the good news is the drought is over (click to enlarge)

"Trapping the [wildfire] smoke are anticyclones, atmospheric high-pressure centers that occur when monsoon winds form a stable layer of air a few thousand feet above Earth's surface…Both Russia and Pakistan are also experiencing "remarkable" temperatures in 2010, which is shaping up to be one of the hottest years since record-keeping began in the late 1880s…Nine countries have shattered heat records… [Pakistan reached] 128.3 degrees Fahrenheit (53.5 degrees Celsius)—the highest ever seen in Asia…

"Extreme events…are believed by some scientists to be increasing with global warming, and the disasters in Russia and Pakistan may be indications of this…[and] prolonged by an atmospheric "logjam" that's common in the summer but which has been unusually "stubborn and long-lasting" this year…[It] occurs when atmospheric winds lock climate phenomena—such as large storms or heat waves—into place for a long period of time…Overall, scientists often struggle to quantify how the climate fits in with such natural occurrences…"