LEAKED STUDY PREDICTS PEAK OIL

Leaked Study on Peak Oil Warns of Severe Global Energy Crisis
Robert Rapier, September 2, 2010 (R-Squared)

"…[A] study on peak oil by a German military think tank was leaked [in German] on the Internet. The document shows that the German government is closely studying the issue of peak oil, and is aware of the potential for serious consequences as oil production declines. The study is reminiscent of the Hirsch Report, commissioned by the U.S. Department of Energy, that warned of the risks posed by peak oil.

"The document warns of the potential for regional shortages, market failures, and a shift in political power toward those capable of exporting oil. This report describes potential outcomes that require planning and preparation. The scenarios outlined in the paper are exactly the kinds of drivers that lead me to advocate for greater regional energy self-sufficiency. The report clearly lays out just how vulnerable Europe will be because of its continuing dependence upon Russia for both oil and gas, and notes that Russia will be in a very strong political bargaining position…"

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"The report [roughly translated and summarized] sees significant risks arising from an unavoidable peak in oil production, which go beyond gradual shifts in energy systems and economies. This will likely lead to economic change and new geopolitical risks that affect much more than just what we can anticipate. The overall ability to describe exact outcomes is very limited, as many scenarios are possible, and further research is required.

"Overall, more emphasis needs to be put on understanding and shaping international relationships in respect to energy security, anticipating and integrating the ongoing shift to different players in a resource-constrained world…In any case, Germany has to identify and implement alternatives to the current transportation technologies that require oil, and put a similar emphasis on avoiding other dependencies, for example concerning rare earths."

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"For armed forces, Peak Oil creates significant risks, both from a mobility standpoint as well as from dependencies on other societal services. Understanding those risks requires further analysis and likely a very different approach in the future.

"In general, more preparation is required for society and army to make sure that problems are recognized and solutions are actively implemented."