GREEN TRAINS

Hybrid Locomotives; Technology Innovations and Demand Drivers for Diesel and All-Electric Locomotives, Genset Locomotives, and Hybrid Locomotives: Market Analysis and Forecasts
Dave Hurst and Clint Wheelock, 4Q 2010 (Pike Research)

"…[F]our main types of locomotives are in use today: long-line road, regional or local freight, switching (or shunter, in Europe), and passenger locomotives…This report focuses on the market for new and remanufactured vehicles.

"Almost all locomotives used today are powered by electricity. This electricity is either generated onboard the vehicle through a diesel engine or it is provided through a connection to the electric grid (third rails or overhead lines). All-electric trains require this electrical connection, and these trains can serve both passenger and freight transport purposes. Western Europe and Japan have a high mix of electrified tracks (52% and 61%,respectively). In other parts of the world, diesel is the dominant source of electricity generation on trains."

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"Growth in hybrid locomotives faces several key challenges. In Europe, track electrification will eliminate the need for battery storage in many areas. In North America, a high-profile hybrid locomotive concept [called the Green Goat] faced a setback in the mid-2000s that still haunts the manufacturers and railroad companies today. The market for hybrid locomotives faces stiff competition from newer fuel-efficient locomotives…[and] from traditional locomotives. A new generation of locomotives has emerged in the last decade called generator set (or genset) locomotives. These switching locomotives have two or three generator diesel engines…

"Hybrid locomotives are expected to have a strong return on investment (ROI), as a result of the ability to use low-cost batteries. Weight on locomotives is often helpful …to help increase the friction between the wheel and the track (adhesion) during acceleration. Lead acid batteries cost less, weigh more, and will be used in many of the first hybrid locomotive applications. The passenger locomotives that have less space available…are more likely to take advantage of lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries’ size and storage capacity. Advanced lead acid batteries will make inroads as well. General Electric (GE) has built a plant to manufacture sodium metal halide batteries, and is showing a prototype…Nickel metal hydride (NiMH)…is unlikely to move into the locomotive space…"

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"The market for hybrid locomotives is likely to get a boost from two important forces. First, in the middle of the decade, new rules regarding diesel locomotive emissions…[that] will require substantial changes…This will help drive interest in having hybrids…Additionally, railroad infrastructure is growing rapidly in India and China. Brazil and Russia (the other two “BRIC” countries) are not seeing as rapid development of infrastructure, largely due to the cost, but they do have strong governmental support for improving their rail capacity. These countries are expected to help drive the demand for locomotives…China is expected to have strong hybrid locomotives growth…

"Overall, hybrid locomotives will be seen over the next 3 to 5 years, mostly as demonstration and prototype projects. The sales of these vehicles will likely begin middecade in Western Europe and North America…[T]heir respective compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is 17.2% and 13.5% between 2015 and 2020). China is expected to be a source for strong sales growth (a CAGR of 22.2% between 2015 and 2020)…Worldwide, Pike Research anticipates that the hybrid locomotive market will reach between 109 and 174 vehicles by 2020, for a CAGR of 19.4% to 25.4% between 2015 and 2020. This will translate into a need for storage of 116.4 MWh of energy in 2020."