COAL’S LONG GOODBYE

Report: A dramatic drop in coal-fired power by 2035 in the U.S.
December 6, 2010 (Reuters)

"Coal’s share of the United States’ electricity market will drop dramatically over the next two decades as supplies of low-cost natural gas expand and new pollution controls come into effect, according to a new study by Black & Veatch, the engineering and consulting giant.

"The firm projects that coal-fired power plants will provide 25 percent of the nation’s electricity in 2035, down from 49 percent today. Natural gas-powered facilities’ share of electricity generation will rise to 40 percent, up from 21 percent. Renewable energy production will spike from four percent to 11 percent while nuclear generation increases slightly from 20 percent to 21 percent in 2035 under Black & Veatch’s scenario…"

click thru for a complete presentation

"Black & Veatch predicts that about 16 percent of the U.S.’ coal-fired fleet will be retired in the coming years to avoid the cost of complying with new pollution control measures…[But] the future is rife with uncertainty over how low natural gas prices will go and for how long. Complicating matters are the prospects for national climate change legislation that would impose caps on carbon emissions. While chances of Congress of passing a cap-and-trade system in the next two years are slim to none…legislation will eventually be enacted."

click thru for a complete presentation

"Electric cars and their potential to stimulate electricity demand pose another unknown…In other words, technological changes potentially could render investments in multibillion-dollar power plants and infrastructure white elephants.

"During the recession year of 2009, electricity demand fell 4.1 percent in the United States, the biggest drop in 60 years. Demand increased 4.7 percent in 2010 but…[it is not certain] that uptick [is] a sign of a resurgence in power generation…Accounting for the unseasonable weather, actual demand growth will be less than two percent in 2010 [and about the same is expected in 2011]…"