THE POWER FROM RECYCLING

Waste-to-Energy Technology Markets; Thermal and Biological Processes for Electricity and Heat Generation from Municipal Solid Waste: Market Analysis and Forecasts
Philippe Tob and Clint Wheelock, 4Q 2010 (Pike Research)

"...The gigantic amounts of waste that are hauled to dumps and accumulate in heaps and open pits have grown to become a major environmental issue. Landfilling is still the world's most widely used method for managing and treating waste. This [unsustainable] practice has detrimental effects on the environment: land occupation, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, groundwater pollution, odor, and aesthetics…[W]here landfilling is impractical…incineration is the preferred method…[I]ndustrialized countries have adopted regulations to divert waste from landfills through recycling, treatment, and materials and energy recovery. In addition, economic conditions and regulated markets have stimulated the use of waste as a resource and a source of energy.

"Waste-to-energy (WTE) encompasses methods by which to extract the valuable energy entrapped in waste for the production of electricity and heat. Waste collected in cities contains a large amount of biological and renewable materials. It is therefore a source of renewable energy. As a consequence, energy-from-waste contributes to energy security and diversification, and matches the growing demand for renewable energy in a carbon constrained world…Policies, regulations, and changing economic conditions are driving the growth of WTE capacity worldwide, creating attractive business opportunities for providers of WTE technologies and related components. Combustion is the dominant technology and is entrenched in the market. Yet, advanced thermal treatment (ATT) technologies such as plasma arc gasification are emerging in the market. Moreover, biological technologies for treating waste offer an attractive alternative to thermal treating methods."

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"Today, more than 900 thermal WTE plants operate around the globe. These plants treat an estimated 0.2 billion tons of municipal solid waste (MSW) with an estimated output of 130 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity…The definition of MSW of the International Energy Agency (IEA): Waste in WTE is MSW where MSW is described as household waste and commercial and industrial waste that has a composition similar to the composition of household waste…Pike Research does not consider the extraction of energy from decaying waste in landfill and the harnessing of landfill gas (LFG) in this report…

"Pike Research has focused the scope of this study on the thermal and biological treatment methods that yield energy in the form of heat and electricity. As such, waste-to-fuel applications, such as purified biogas for injection in natural gas grids, are excluded. Thermal methods include combustion, gasification, and pyrolysis. Biological treatment is limited to anaerobic digestion…"

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"In 2010, the world population will produce an estimated 1.7 billion tons of MSW. More than 1 billion tons will end up in landfills; while close to 0.2 billion tons will fuel thermal WTE plants….Only a few countries, such as the Netherlands and Germany, are nearing the decoupling of waste and GDP…Policies, regulations, and rules have had a fundamental impact on the evolution and structure of the WTE market…Mass burn, or as-received combustion, dominates the WTE market. The market share of mass burn and refuse derived fuel (RDF) combustion is 98% globally, which dwarfs the share of other thermal and biological treatment technologies…

"According to Pike Research estimates, the global market for thermal and biological WTE technologies will reach $3.7 billion in 2010 and grow to $13.6 billion in 2016. Asia Pacific will contribute the largest portion of the growth, which will take off in 2012. The market in this region will likely grow to $6.6 billion at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31%. Market conditions in Western Europe – saturated, slow, or halted – will depend on the country. Certain countries could achieve the decoupling of waste generation and GDP and decrease the amounts of waste that emerge in the WTE market. Pike Research therefore anticipates erratic growth in Western Europe. The Western European market will grow from an estimated $1.7 billion in 2010 to $3.2 billion in 2016 at a CAGR of 11%. The U.S. market, which was dormant for over 15 years, shows a revival of activity. Favorable economic conditions for thermal WTE activity could spur market growth. As such, the U.S. market could grow at a very high CAGR of 40% and attain $1.2 billion in 2016."