NUCLEAR GETS MORE IRRELEVANT

Japan's nuclear crisis won't derail world energy markets; Even if the world scales back on development of nuclear power, it won't have a sweeping impact on energy prices. The reality is that nuclear is still small.
Nin-Hai Tseng, March 25, 2011 (Fortune via CNN)

"As crews in Japan scramble to contain what has been called the world's worst nuclear crisis in 25 years, governments around the world are questioning the safety of nuclear power. Germany temporarily shut down its older nuclear power stations, while China has postponed approval of new nuclear plants. Other countries, including the U.S., are calling for more scrutiny of nuclear policies and plant locations.

"Some analysts speculate that the crisis could eventually send the world's energy prices higher. Natural gas for April delivery rose…[and] futures are up 3.4% from a year ago…6 of 14 analysts say that natural gas futures will rise through April 1 on speculation that damaged reactors in Japan will divert cargoes of liquefied natural gas from the U.S…[and] prices could rise in the long-term if lessons from Japan result in more [costly] regulations…"

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"The crisis has rightfully sent jitters across the nuclear industry. News that Japan advised against feeding tap water to infants due to higher radiation levels sounded alarms globally, with the U.S. being the first nation to block some food imports from Japan.

"…[T]he crisis may serve more as a cautionary tale than the big game-changer over nuclear power…Capital Economics senior economist Andrew Kenningham [said]… the so-called "nuclear renaissance" that many say could transform global energy markets is not as big a renaissance as it might seem…[C]iting estimates from the International Energy Association, [he said] that nuclear power isn't forecast to be that big of a player in global energy markets…[Nuclear generation will] rise by 20% between now and 2030, but the share of nuclear in electricity generation would fall from 14% to 11% during the same period…[making it] a relatively small portion, 6%, of the world's total energy supply."

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"The big player in nuclear is China. In the coming years, it is poised to have the world's biggest appetite, accounting for 45% of expected growth…[but] China has currently suspended approvals of new nuclear plants…[though it will likely] go ahead with its nuclear program eventually [to get away from fossil fuels].

"…President Hu Jintao has said he wants renewable sources to produce 15% of China's energy by 2020 and and it's currently developing wind, solar and hydroelectric power. No doubt nuclear power is in the mix -- China is building nuclear reactors faster than any other country in the world, with projects representing 60% of all nuclear power plant construction globally…[but that’s not enough to increase nuclear’s world share or] result in higher energy prices…"