WORLD EV SALES TO GO UP

Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts; Global Forecasts for Light-Duty Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, and Battery Electric Vehicles: 2011-2017
Dave Hurst and John Gartner, 3Q 2011 (Pike Research)

"…To develop forecasts for electric vehicles, including battery electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), Pike Research examines four key factors…[1]Vehicle availability…demand for HEVs in North America will lead to the availability of 40 models by the end of 2012, versus 14 HEV models in Asia Pacific…[2] Fuel prices…fuel costs in North America will be lower than those in Asia Pacific…

"…[3] Government market influence…China in the Asia Pacific region is taking the lead in terms of incentivizing vehicle adoption…[4] Consumer attitudes and recharging infrastructure… growth of publically available electric vehicle charging equipment (EVCE) will also help build confidence that BEVs and PHEVs will fit within consumers’ lifestyles…"

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"…Overall, the market for electrified vehicles will grow at a CAGR of 19.5% between 2011 and 2017 (this compares to a CAGR of 3.7% for the vehicle market overall during the same period). The plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market which is the combination of both BEVs and PHEVs will see substantial growth because it is currently still in its infancy (48.4% CAGR).

"The market for PEVs is expected to grow to 1,342,067 vehicles annually by 2017 – about 1.4% of the global light-duty vehicle market. The Asia Pacific region will be the leading market due to the strength of the Japanese market and growth in China in the coming years. The PEV market is anticipated to miss many of the targets set by various government bodies because vehicle programs have not been launching as rapidly as expected…"