HOW EV BATTERIES WILL DO
Electric Vehicle Batteries; Lithium Ion Batteries for Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, and Battery Electric Vehicles: Market Analysis and Forecasts
Sreekanth Venkataraman and John Gartner, 4Q 2011 (Pike Research)
"Over the past few years, the automotive industry has increased its focus on the electric vehicle (EV) market by successfully introducing several new plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles…
"These vehicles will rely almost exclusively on lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries, while hybrid vehicles will slowly switch from nickel-metal hydride (NiMH) technology. While the cost of Li-ion batteries is gradually declining, cost still represents a significant hurdle as it accounts for a large portion of total EV cost."
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"The government subsidies that gave the initial impetus to the electric vehicle market will continue to drive the market in the near term…[S]ignificant reductions in battery cost are imperative for the industry to grow to the $14.6 billion and 28 million kWh market that Pike Research forecasts by 2017. Nearly half of the demand is likely to come from Asia (led primarily by China) while Europe and the United States are likely to constitute 25% and 21% shares…
"…There are currently more than half a dozen battery chemistries with unique properties for power, energy density, and life cycle performance that are being commercialized…[N]o chemistry [has emerged] as the clear winner (owing to the tradeoffs in the various properties)…[But there is likely to be] a greater interest in the lithium iron phosphate chemistry in the years to come due to its superior performance characteristics coupled with increased safety…"