PV MAKERS IN SNAFU

US$6 Billion Overspend Forces PV Manufacturing Equipment Suppliers to Adjust Strategies; Significant Industry Over-Capacity to Cause Prolonged Downturn in PV Equipment Revenues
October 17, 2011 (solarbuzz)

"Global PV equipment spending (including c-Si ingot-to-module and thin-film panel) is now projected to fall by more than 45% in 2012, down from a historic peak of US$13.1 billion this year…As a result, PV equipment suppliers are being forced to redefine their product roadmaps to align with the projected upturn in spending after 2012.

"Almost half of PV equipment spending in 2011 has been stimulated by new entrants to the PV industry or from existing tier 2 or tier 3 manufacturers seeking to increase revenues simply by adding more capacity. The majority of this investment has turned out to be supplemental to… short term industry demand."

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"Consequently, revenues available to PV equipment suppliers have been temporarily inflated by US$6 billion during 2011. The scale of this over-investment will not only drive the magnitude of the revenue declines during 2012, but will also prolong the spending downturn period into 2013…

"The only PV equipment suppliers that will be shielded from rapid declines in revenues through 2012 are those with strong order backlogs aligned with polysilicon expansion phases in progress across the Asia Pacific region. This will actually drive Y/Y growth in revenues for a select group of companies…[M]any other PV equipment suppliers will experience Y/Y revenue declines of 30-70%. Equipment suppliers that benefitted most from the c-Si wafer, cell and module expansions of 2011 will be the hardest hit during 2012…"