CHINESE HOMEGROWN PV ZOOM

China PV Installations Forecast to Surpass Both the US and Japanese Markets in 2011; Asia Pacific Markets Projected to Reach More than 4.8 GW in 2011; Utility-Scale Ground-Mount Installations in China and India Drive Markets
November 22, 2011 (Solarbuzz)

"In the Asia Pacific region, the photovoltaic (PV) market is forecast to grow 39% Q/Q and 130% Y/Y in Q4’11. Q4'11 installations of more than 2 GW of PV capacity are expected, which will significantly raise the region's share of the global market this year, according to… NPD Solarbuzz…

"The region is poised to grow an additional 45% in 2012, as Asian governments introduce new installation targets. China's National Energy Administration recently revised its official cumulative solar installation target up from 10 GW to 15 GW for 2015, representing just one of the most recent examples. China is projected to account for 45% of regional demand in Q4'11 and is on course to surpass both the US and Japanese market sizes in 2011."

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"Elsewhere, regional demand is being driven by national incentive programs in India, while Japan is also growing rapidly ahead of its new FIT program. Other emerging markets in the region such as Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, and Malaysia are projected to deliver a combined 700 MW of additional demand in 2012.

"Non-residential ground mount systems are projected to account for 64% of the regional market by Q4’12, up from just 16% in Q1’11. This share growth will come at the expense of the residential segment which falls from 58% in Q1’11 to just 20% by Q4’12…Internal rates of return (IRRs) on PV systems in the four major markets will build over the next four quarters, ending 2012 at levels between 10% and 13%, as system prices drop faster than incentive rates…"