THE TRAFFIC IN ELECTRIC BUSES

Electric Drive Buses; Hybrid, Plug-In Hybrid, Battery Electric, and Fuel Cell Buses: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts for Heavy Duty and Medium Duty Segments

3Q 2012 (Pike Research/Navigant)

“Over the past few years, government stimulus funding has helped drive adoption of alternative fuel buses around the world, including buses with electric drivetrains. Hybrid and battery buses have both benefitted from these initiatives, while fuel cell buses have had support from government programs designed to support transit fuel cell systems…

“…[For] electric drive options…many of [the] benefits accrue mostly to the public, rather than to owners or operators…[This] threatens to limit the commercial success of these technologies. All three bus options come with higher price tags than diesel or CNG buses, and bus operators must either offset these costs with government subsidies or achieve sufficient operational savings to offset the price premium.”

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“…[Overall, the global market for all electric drive buses is expected to grow steadily over the next 6 years, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.4% from 2012 to 2018 but the]…cost premium will be a challenge for both battery and fuel cell buses in securing significant market share, but both segments will continue to see growth as countries subsidize new bus technologies…

“…Hybrid buses have already captured significant market share in the United States, and China has also been strong in this technology. Hybrid buses will also begin to see more uptake in Europe, albeit at a slower rate than in the United States or China. Lithium ion batteries, the primary battery chemistry for battery buses, [with global demand over 162,000 kWh in 2012 and growing to more than 1.3 million kWh by 2018, a CAGR of 42%. They will] also supply a significant percentage of the energy storage needed in hybrid and fuel cell drivetrains…”

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