TOO MUCH SILICON MEANS LOW SOLAR PRICE

Solar Polysilicon Glut Persists As Suppliers Consider Production Cuts

14 September 2012 (Solar Industry)

“With pricing for photovoltaic polysilicon declining at an accelerated rate in August, there are no signs that the glut plaguing the industry has abated, behooving tier-one suppliers to consider reducing production in order to stabilize market conditions…PV polysilicon prices last month fell at a faster rate in August than they did in July, continuing a losing streak that started in the fourth quarter of 2011…

“Looking ahead to polysilicon demand in September and October [it is possible there will be a rebound but]…an impending trade war with China in this market creates an air of uncertainty that may frighten away some buyers. If these pressures continue, September and October could potentially see weak demand, putting additional pressure on polysilicon suppliers worldwide.”

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“Price is also a matter of uncertainty because of the anti-dumping situation in China. If a punitive tariff is imposed on Korean and EU/U.S. polysilicon makers in the next three months by the Chinese Department of Commerce, these companies will be forced to accelerate price declines because China is the dominant buyer of polysilicon.

“…If Tier 1 suppliers maintain high utilization levels, the polysilicon oversupply situation will continue for the next 12 months…[A]t least 10% to 15% less polysilicon was traded during [August] compared to July. The lower demand is having a significant impact on the market for spot polysilicon because buyers still need to fulfill their long-term agreements with major suppliers, even though some buyers tried hard to keep the volume to a minimum…[On the hopeful side], demand from China is ready to take off soon - even though it has yet to materialize.”

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