THE YEAR SUN TRANSITIONED

2012: Transitioning to the Next Phase of PV Industry Development

Michael barker, September 28, 2012 (SolarBuzz)

“Spurred by lower than expected second-half demand, most major PV module manufacturers lowered shipment guidance in the most recent round of quarterly earnings calls [from 30% growth]…[I]n late Q3’12] it appears…European markets in total have declined throughout the year. This fact has led manufacturers to…[lower] industry expectations by half.

“Along with changing seasonal demand profiles, lower Y/Y growth – less than 10% in 2012 compared to 42% in 2011 – has combined with the continued oversupply situation to make 2012 a difficult year for manufacturers. The oversupply persists despite an initial wave of liquidations, primarily Western firms…[I]t is now being felt by Chinese manufacturers…[It]is likely to hit tier 2 and 3 – and maybe even a few tier 1 – Chinese manufacturers.”

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“…Current projections show an industry stabilization period beginning in the next 4-8 quarters. The time period is indefinite as, until now, many of the tertiary production players have enjoyed benign financing sources. As such they could continue to live on ‘borrowed time’ or could fall out more quickly per the decisions of financiers.

“…[As this happens,] there will be less pressure on ASPs, and the task will fall to the remaining players to use any breathing room to refocus efforts on cost reduction…[and] margin recovery. This period of industry change could lead to a market in which there are significantly fewer players, each of whom may have a larger market share. The task at the moment for firms that have the capability is to survive…”

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