UTILITY GOES FOR BETTER SUN, WIND FORECASTS

Xcel Energy and NCAR power up renewable energy forecasts

2013 May 8 (Xcel Energy)

“Xcel Energy…expanded [its] agreement with the National Center for Atmospheric Research for sophisticated renewable energy forecasting…[A]n existing relationship… has saved Xcel Energy’s 3.4 million electricity customers in eight states millions of dollars [including more than $6 million in 2010]…

“In the next two years, NCAR scientists and engineers will develop custom forecasting systems to enable Xcel Energy control centers in Minneapolis, Denver, Golden, Colo., and Amarillo, Tex., to anticipate sudden changes in wind, shut down turbines ahead of potentially damaging icing events and even predict the amount of energy generated by private solar panels [and it will eventually publish the results]…”

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“The new project represents the latest venture by NCAR into renewable energy, which includes a three-year, nationwide project to create 36-hour forecasts of incoming energy from the sun for solar energy power plants…The systems will help Xcel Energy provide reliable power…and reduce costs while…[using more] wind and solar…in its territories served by Public Service Co. of Colorado, Northern States Power Co.-Minnesota, NSP-Wisconsin and Southwestern Public Service Co…

“…The specialized system relies on a suite of tools, including highly detailed observations of atmospheric conditions, an ensemble of powerful computer models, and artificial intelligence techniques to issue high-resolution forecasts for wind farm sites…[They] will provide ‘probabilistic forecasts,’ estimating the chances that a particular weather event will occur. This means that utility managers will be able to make decisions based on whether there is an 80 percent chance of certain weather events at a wind farm the next day or a 20 percent chance…Ultimately, Xcel Energy will control the systems…”

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