Solar To Dominate By 2030 – Futurist

Ray Kurzweil: Here's Why Solar Will Dominate Energy Within 12 Years; Growth is exponential—just like processing power.

David Z. Morris, April 16, 2016 (Fortune)

“…[Futurist Ray Kurzweil said solar] could become the dominant force in energy production in a little over a decade. That may be tough to swallow, given that solar currently only supplies around 2% of global energy—but Kurzweil’s predictions have been overwhelmingly correct over the last two decades, so he’s worth listening to…[His basic point] was that while solar is still tiny, it has begun to reliably double its market share every two years—today’s 2% share is up from just 0.5% in 2012…Many analysts extend growth linearly from that sort of pattern, concluding that we’ll see 0.5% annual growth in solar for the foreseeable future, reaching just 12% solar share in 20 years. But linear analysis ignores what Kurzweil calls the Law of Accelerating Returns—that as new technologies get smaller and cheaper, their growth becomes exponential…[Kurzweil says that if] the current 2% share doubles every two years, solar should have a 100% share of the market in 12 years…[but] Kurzweil’s prediction is only partially grounded in the real world…[because fossil fuel giants are definitely not going down without a fight…” click here for more

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