The New Green Deal Is Shutdown Serious

This is what a government shutdown over climate change would look like

Eric Holthaus, December 17, 2018 (Grist)

“…[The president says a border wall to limit immigration is worth a government shutdown and some say [Green New Dealers should think about climate change as an existential threat that deserves the same commitment]…The first step would be making climate change a core and unrelenting talking point of the party’s platform — and then winning elections specifically with a populist mandate to take immediate, large-scale action on it…The policy platform that has emerged from [midterm] electoral wins — the Green New Deal — has already pushed the larger Democratic Party to quickly consider positions that would have been deemed outright radical just a few months ago, like a nationwide 100 percent renewable energy mandate by 2030 and a green jobs guarantee. This kind of rapid shift in dialogue is consistent with the “moon shot” approach that scientists say is necessary to prevent catastrophic warming…

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…Highly visible groups of young people, led by the Sunrise Movement, have already made clear that they’re not going to go easy on Democratic leadership if it ignores climate change…[Policy change could emerge] if its members continue speaking with clear, moral language inspired by past civil rights struggles…Likely incoming Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi promised dialogue with Sunrise protesters, though she’s yet to agree to the protesters’ request to direct a special committee explicitly to develop a Green New Deal plan…[Senate] Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has already made clear that a Green New Deal is the only way forward…[and] Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey became the second likely Democratic presidential contender (along with Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders) to endorse the idea of the sweeping program…[but it will still require a massive push from voters…” click here for more

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New Energy Beats The Market

Renewable Energies Are Finally Becoming Cheaper Than Fossil Fuels

Annie Qureshi, December 17, 2018 (Blue & Green Tomorrow)

“…[Not that long ago, New Energy was] expensive and just not feasible in an economic sense…A 1994 article by Harvard Business Review suggested it might be nearly impossible…[But wind and solar] have become cheaper and more efficient…[and] the construction of coal and gas power plants is more inefficient than the new wind and solar systems…[Moving away from] fossil fuels causes unrest in many countries…[and many] economists] say the 100 percent conversion to renewable energy will cost the global economy billions of dollars…[They forget that not transitioning] will cost the world more in natural disasters and death…

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A crucial step in the reduction of greenhouse gases is the rapid replacement of coal, oil, and gas with renewable energies…The simple reason for the superiority of solar and wind power over conventional extractive industries, such as oil and gas, is that extractive models inevitably run out, increasing costs…In contrast, there is plenty of sun and wind…[T]he green energy generation model is about rising yields and falling costs…This change will be among the most significant human transformations ever, on par with the Industrial Revolution and the rise of the Information Age in the 1990s. The only thing that could kill these developments dead in their tracks is government subsidies for coal, oil, gas or nuclear power – even if this is at the expense of the planet…” click here for more

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A Concrete Climate Concern

Climate change: The massive CO2 emitter you may not know about

Lucy Rodgers, 17 December 2018 (BBC News)

Concrete is the most widely used man-made material in existence. It is second only to water as the most-consumed resource on the planet…[But cement, the key ingredient in concrete,] is the source of about 8% of the world's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions…If the cement industry were a country, it would be the third largest emitter in the world…Production has increased more than thirtyfold since 1950 and almost fourfold since 1990. China used more cement between 2011 and 2013 than the US did in the entire 20th Century…[But] emerging markets of South East Asia and sub-Saharan Africa - driven by rapid urbanisation and economic development…[will require] cement production to increase by a quarter by 2030…[Production involves dust-producing quarrying, the use of massive kilns, which require large amounts of energy, and a chemical process that] emits staggeringly high levels of CO2…

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[I]mprovements in the energy-efficiency of new plants and burning waste materials instead of fossil fuels has seen the average CO2 emissions per tonne of output fall by 18% over the last few decades…[and] digitalisation, machine learning and an increasing awareness of sustainability are all having an impact on the cement industry's culture…[But the] sector is dominated by a small number of major producers who are reluctant to experiment or change business models. Architects, engineers, contractors and clients are also, rather understandably, cautious about using new building materials…[while global] CO2 emissions need to decline by 45% from 2010 levels by 2030…” click here for more

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GE Can Beat The Market With New Energy

General Electric May Be Forced to Bet on Renewable Energy; With many legacy businesses crumbling, GE may see a rare bright spot in renewable energy.

Travis Hoium, December 16, 2018 (The Motley Fool)

Despite General Electric (NYSE:GE) being a world leader in wind energy, renewable has always been…overshadowed by power plants, oil and gas, aviation, GE Capital, and healthcare, which generated more revenue and profits…[but power plants are in structural decline, oil and gas hasn't been as profitable as expected, and GE Capital is a shell of its former self…Despite being a small business for General Electric, the company's renewable energy business is actually one of the largest in the world. In the third quarter of 2018 alone, GE's renewable energy segment generated $2.9 billion in revenue, or an annualized rate of $11.6 billion, beating what some of the biggest renewable energy companies in the world make in an entire year…

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[GE] could acquire its way to dominance in solar, energy storage, and smart devices. It could also leverage GE Capital to develop and build renewable energy projects using other companies' technology…[And] it could leverage existing relationships…Housing multiple groups of technologies under one roof could help lower the cost of integration across technologies and bring unique product and service offerings to market…GE could build a solar farm with wind turbines and energy storage all on one site…[and sell smoothed] streams of electricity to utilities…If GE is profitable and has tax liabilities, it could even use the tax credits that come with renewable energy development…[The renewable energy industry could use a company with GE's scale to help it gain more mainstream recognition and grow to the scale of other energy industries…” click here for more

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U.S. Emissions Trending Down This Decade

U.S. Power Plant Emissions Down 45% Since 2010

Lucas Davis, December 10, 2018 (U.C. Berkeley Hass Energy Institute)

“…[T]he U.S. electric sector in 2010 was very different. Nearly twice as much power came from coal as from natural gas…U.S. power plants emitted 15 billion pounds of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and small particulates…Nitrogen oxides (NOx), small particulates (PM2.5), and carbon dioxide (CO2) are all way down [according to a new report]. But the decrease for sulfur dioxide (SO2) is stunning – down 75% since 2010. These pollutant reductions mean reduced asthma, heart disease, lung cancer, and a whole host of other significant benefits…[Economic] damages from the U.S. power sector have decreased since 2010 from $245 billion to $133 billion (in real 2014 dollars)…[That is a 46% decline, with 88% from reducing sulfur]…

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…[T]he aggregate gains are almost entirely due to lower damages from coal. Burning coal is about 18 times worse than burning natural gas in terms of local pollutants…[The damage reductions fall] into three categories…About 40% from the shift to cleaner plants, e.g., coal to natural gas…About 40% from emissions reductions at existing plants, e.g. scrubbers..About 20% from less fossil fuel generation overall, e.g. more renewables…[The report does not] causally disentangle how much of this transformation was due to cheap natural gas, versus policies like the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards or Renewable Portfolio Standards…[And damages] from the U.S. power sector are still enormous and, in virtually all cases we have still failed to put a “price” on emissions. Moreover, carbon dioxide emissions have not declined nearly as much…” click here for more

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100% New Energy Movement Rolls On

The 100% renewable energy movement is unstoppable…This sets the stage for the debate to shift to what resources we will use to decarbonize, and how quickly we will move.

Christian Roselund, December 6, 2018 (PV Magazine)

“…[Cincinnati just became] the 100th municipality to either achieve 100% renewables in its electricity supply or to set a goal for 100%...[T]his is in addition to a 100% renewable energy mandate in Hawaii and California’s mandate for full decarbonization of electricity, with both setting a target date of 2045…Sierra Club estimates that 48.7 million people, or 15% of the U.S. population, live in cities or states that have set a 100% mandate. This is in addition to more than 34 million who live in Washington D.C. and four states that have pledged to reach at least 50% renewable energy by 2040 or sooner…[And] the 2018 mid-term elections brought to Congress a new group of Democratic politicians who have led a movement calling for the entire nation to move to 100% renewable energy by 2030…[Reaching just] 80% by 2030 could require an average of around 100 GW of combined wind and solar deployments each year for the next 10 years, or 5x the current level…

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[Now] the debate is likely to shift away from whether or not electricity will be decarbonized…[to] about when and how fast this will happen, as well as what resources will be included…[Xcel Energy Colorado plans] to move to 100% zero-carbon electricity by 2050…[but] Colorado Governor-elect Jared Polis is calling [100% renewables by 2040]…The nuclear industry and its advocates will fight tooth and nail to ensure that new mandates are not limited to renewables…[But nuclear technologies] currently commercially available cannot compete with large-scale solar and wind on cost…[There is also likely to] be an increased focus on changes in the transportation electrification]…” click here for more

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Climate Change, Nuclear War, And The Slow Tomorrow

Former Defense Secretary Compares Climate Change To Nuclear War

Jeff McMahon, December 9 2018 (Forbes)

There are two existential catastrophes threatening the world, former Defense Secretary William Perry said. One is quick but avoidable, while the other is slowly unfolding…[The first is] nuclear catastrophe—and the other is a climate catastrophe. The nuclear catastrophe could happen next month, next year…[or never, Perry recently told a Stanford University audience in a dialogue with California Gov. Jerry Brown. But] it happens all at once…[T] he climate-change catastrophe is on a slow roll. It is happening. It’s happening every month, every year…[And it is] getting worse…

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…[Brown responded that nuclear war] and climate change have a similar lack of attention relative to what the threat is…[And both should get] a lot more attention…California has reduced its greenhouse gas emissions from 465 million tons per year to 435 or 440…[but has] to get down to 165…[The only way to do that is to] take every conceivable market-regulatory-investment-R&D-private-public effort…[It will require something like warfare] heroism to deal with climate change…[Perry, who was in Japan after the Hiroshima catastrophe that ended World War II, said the solution to climate change is clear] but we're not doing it…” click here for more

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Are T-RECs The Key To Real 100% New Energy?

Corporate Renewable Energy 2.0: Moving Past ‘Dinosaur Power’ to 100×100 Renewables

Taylor Sloane, December 4, 2018 (Energy Manager Today)

“…Some forward-leaning companies have already reached [net 100% renewables] and their achievements should be celebrated…[T]he next frontier is ensuring that renewable energy is actually powering corporate facilities when they have load – 100% renewable energy 100% of the time…One hundred percent renewable energy on a net basis means that in a year, the amount of renewable energy sourced by a company is equal to the amount of electricity that the company consumed…[But as] renewable energy penetration increases, the value of additional renewable energy on the grid decreases due to falling capacity value…Adding additional solar energy to a grid that is already curtailing solar generation [during midday when the belly of the “Duck Curve” is fat with solar output] will not achieve the additionality that corporate renewable energy procurements seek, as that new solar is not offsetting the energy generated by fossil fuel generation…

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…Procuring only renewable energy on a net basis is not a scalable solution to create a sustainable renewable energy market where everyone can achieve 100% renewable energy…[T]he stretch goal is achieving 100% renewable energy 100% of the time, or 100×100. This could be accomplished using Time-matched Renewable Energy Credits, or T-RECs. Reaching 100×100 will certainly be a difficult task, but reaching 100% renewable energy on a net basis also seemed daunting 10 years ago…Based on the economics of energy storage and renewables, our modelling shows that 80-90% time-matched renewable energy consumption is realistic today for a facility with a 24/7 flat load using a combination of wind, solar and storage…Corporate leaders have already changed how electricity is procured. Continued innovation in corporate sourcing of renewable energy has the potential to drive further electricity decarbonization…” click here for more

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New Energy Beating Old Energy In The Market, Part 1

Plunging Prices Mean Building New Renewable Energy Is Cheaper Than Running Existing Coal

Megan Mahajan, December 3, 2018 (Forbes)

A new report reveals 42% of global coal capacity is currently unprofitable, and the United States could save $78 billion by closing coal-fired power plants in line with the Paris Climate Accord’s climate goals. This industry-disrupting trend comes down to dollars and cent…The price to build new wind and solar has fallen below the cost of running existing coal-fired power plants in Red and Blue states…Colorado’s Xcel will retire 660 megawatts (MW) of coal capacity ahead of schedule in favor of renewable sources and battery storage, and reduce costs in the process. Midwestern utility MidAmerican will be the first utility to reach 100% renewable energy by 2020 without increasing customer rates, and Indiana’s NIPSCO will replace 1.8 gigawatts (GW) of coal with wind and solar…

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…[This is] dimming the prospects for struggling coal and nuclear plants. The U.S. is on pace for a record 15.4 GW of coal closures in 2018, could close an additional 24.1 GW of coal capacity by 2024, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration projects a 65 GW decline through 2030. Carbon Tracker forecasts that by that time, 100% of U.S. coal capacity will have higher long-run operating costs than renewables…[The proposed White House bailout of Old Energy] was dropped after intense scrutiny from multiple fronts…[because of its] backward-looking approach to keep dirty and expensive energy sources online instead of embracing clean and cheap energy sources…” click here for more

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New Energy Beating Old Energy In The Market, Part 2

Plunging Prices Mean Building New Renewable Energy Is Cheaper Than Running Existing Coal

Megan Mahajan, December 3, 2018 (Forbes)

“…Lazard’s annual Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) analysis reports solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind costs have dropped an extraordinary 88% and 69% since 2009, respectively. Meanwhile, coal and nuclear costs have increased by 9% and 23%, respectively…[Even without current subsidies, New Energy] costs can be considerably lower than the marginal cost of conventional energy technologies…[C]ustomers save money when utilities replace existing coal with wind or solar…[and] utility solar PV costs will decline 60% by 2050 under mid-level forecasts assuming continued industry growth, and technological breakthroughs [cutting] costs up to 80% by 2050…[O]nshore wind analysis forecasts a 30% cost decline by 2050, which could be up to 58%-64% with breakthroughs…

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This year’s LCOE analysis reported new onshore wind costs $29-$56 per megawatt hour (MWh) to build without subsidies and $14-$47/MWh to build with subsidies. New utility solar PV costs $36-$44/MWh to build without subsidies and $32-$41/MWh to build with subsidies. Comparatively, marginal costs—the cost to operate existing plants—are $27-$45/MWh for coal and $24-$31/MWh for nuclear…[V]alues would be even better if Lazard accounted for external costs from climate change like property damage from extreme weather disasters or human lives lost to air pollution…” click here for more

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Watch U.S. Cities Heat Up

Watch how the climate could change in these US cities by 2050; In some cities, it’ll be like moving two states south.

Umair Irfan and Kavya Sukumar, Javier Zarracina and Amanda Northrop, November 30, 2018 (VOX)

“…[Climate change has already had devastating impacts on our health and economy, and its costs could mount to hundreds of billions of dollars by the end of the century, according to the National Climate Assessment from 13 federal agencies. Maps from Weather 2050, based on the assessment’s business as usual forecasts show] many US cities may resemble hotter, more southern parts of the country today…in terms of their temperature and rainfall patterns…The planet as a whole has already warmed by 1°C since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution, and we are currently on track to see upward of 2°C of warming by 2040. But we still have an opportunity to prevent the worst-case scenarios…Whether the world shifts to cleaner energy, eats less meat, manages land better, pulls carbon dioxide out of the air, or sticks to business as usual will mean vastly different degrees of future warming…” click here for more

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Astonishing Things About New Energy, Part 5 – Geothermal

5 Hard-to-Believe Renewable Energy Facts; Renewable energy from wind and solar went from impossibly expensive to nearly 10% of American electricity in less than 20 years. What's ahead may be even more astounding.

Maxx Chatsko, November 11, 2018 (The Motley Fool)

“…Geothermal energy could replace nuclear power, with help from fracking…While some states have provided subsidies to reward nuclear power plants for providing carbon-free electricity, that can't continue indefinitely. By 2030, the country's aging [nuclear] fleet will be long overdue for retirement…The U.S. Department of Energy is quietly funding the development of a novel technology called enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). By using fracking technology pioneered and perfected for use in shale oil and gas regions, it may be possible to create geothermal energy wells across the United States that can produce massive amounts of clean energy…

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…[Simulations show numbers almost] too good to be true. The United States has an estimated 100,000 megawatts of easily accessible next-generation geothermal potential -- exactly the amount of nuclear power currently operating. Geothermal is the second most efficient energy source…behind nuclear power, and the U.S. DOE is targeting a deployment date of 2030 -- exactly when the nation will need to replace its nuclear fleet…The opportunity isn't quite ready for individual investors yet, but companies that specialize in oil and gas well optimization…[could take advantage of] emerging opportunities in EGS…” click here for more

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