SOLAR TRENDS

7 Trends That Will Dominate the Intersolar Show
Katie Fehrenbacher, July 13, 2009 (Earth2Tech via Reuters)

"The Intersolar conference, being held in downtown San Francisco this week…comes at a unique point in the development of the U.S. solar market: one of major hurdles and massive opportunities. It’s…the North American version of the massive German solar show, which delivers major news from the solar industry every year…

"…The U.S. solar market (both as a supplier and as a consumer) has the potential to be one of the largest in the world, and has a wealth of startups, many born out of the labs of U.S. universities and pumped full of venture capital dollars, that are trying to scale new technologies to bring down the price of solar to grid parity (so it’s equal to the cost of fossil fuels)…

"…[W]ith the passage of the stimulus package, the extension of the clean energy tax credits, and the climate bill that’s winding its way through the Senate, the U.S. is starting to offer important government support. At the same time…[there is] the international economic slump…dropping silicon prices (the key ingredient in solar panels), and…international competition. It’s a difficult landscape to navigate, but here are seven trends…"

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"1. How to Maneuver U.S. Federal Policy…how to tap into the new funds and opportunities from the U.S. federal government….the renewable energy tax credits (which provide a 30 percent tax credit for investing in clean power projects)…the stimulus package…[that] allocates around $43 billion in various funding forms… [including] billions in clean energy grants…as well as funds for renewable energy manufacturing tax credits, and building out transmission lines…Finally, there’s the climate bill, which… if passed would create… a cap and trade system that would deliver a decidedly friendlier solar climate, using market mechanisms…[and] a national renewable portfolio standard, which says utilities must deliver a certain percentage of their electricity from clean power by a certain year….

"2. Oversupply Up; Silicon Prices Down…tough margins for solar manufacturers…3. Will China Achieve its Solar Potential Soon?…The country’s emergence as a solar consumer will effect the international solar industry, creating a massive market…"

The utilities are buying in bigtime. (click to enlarge)

"4. Next-Gen Thin Film Makers Still Ramping Up…A few panels at the show will be focused on thin film technologies, and we’ll be looking for some good — as well as more negative — news…5. Chip Companies Making Solar Friends…The barrier for chip companies to enter the solar arena has recently started dropping…[and] could be a $6 billion market this year.

"6. Utilities Owning Solar…We’ll be listening to see if this is an emerging trend that many utilities at the show plan to follow…7. Solar Thermal’s Permitting and NIMBY Woes…Massive solar thermal plants that need large areas of dedicated land — and permits and approval from state and federal regulatory bodies — have long been frustrated over the long time tables and opposition from environmentalists…companies will be looking to discuss how to overcome hurdles in the permitting process, how to access these lands, and how to work with the BLM…"