EMISSIONS PICTURE WORSENING…

Global carbon emissions budget 10% off track for 2000-2050, and could run out by 2034
December 1, 2009 (PriceWaterhouseCoopers)

"Very few of the G20 nations are on track to live within their carbon budgets for 2000-50 according to a new report by economists and climate change specialists at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP(PwC). The report reviews G20 carbon intensity levels between 2000-2008 and the distance to go to 2050, underlining the case for an ambitious deal in Copenhagen.

"The report estimates a maximum global carbon budget for the period from 2000 to 2050 of just under 1,300 GtCO2, with national breakdowns for the G20 on an annual basis, to give the world a fair chance of limiting global temperature rises to no more than 2ºC (relative to pre-industrial levels), without sacrificing long term economic growth."

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"Against the levels implied by the estimates, global carbon emissions are already 10% off track, with even the EU currently 7% behind. At current rates of carbon intensity improvement, the world will already have exceeded its estimated global carbon budget for the first half of this century by 2034, 16 years ahead of schedule…Such a ‘business as usual’ scenario could result in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations exceeding 1000ppm CO2e by the end of the century with potentially disastrous implications for the climate system and the global economy.

"Using PwC’s global long-term economic growth and energy consumption model, the study derives plausible annual carbon budgets and carbon intensity pathways for the global economy and the individual G20 economies between 2000 and 2050, consistent with a consensus view of a 2ºC stabilisation scenario. The PwC analysis estimates a global energy-related carbon emissions budget to be under 1,300 GtCO2 for the period from 2000 to 2050, to have a fair chance of restricting global warming to 2C…"

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"PwC’s carbon budget analysis provides the basis for constructing two new PwC Low Carbon Economy indices, examining carbon intensity reduction achievements between 2000-2008 as compared to estimated carbon budgets for this period (the PwC Low Carbon Achievement index), and the mountain the world now needs to climb to get back onto a low carbon trajectory by 2020 (PwC Low Carbon Challenge Index) and continue on this track to 2050…

"Key facts from the report are…[1] One fifth of the global carbon budget for the first half of this century has gone in just eight years…[2] Global carbon debt in 2000-8 roughly equivalent to the combined 2008 emissions of China and the US…[3] G20 need to cut carbon intensity levels by 35% by 2020 - four times the annual rate achieved in 2000-8…[4] Global emissions from energy use need to peak by around 2015, declining to 2009 levels by 2020…[5] Collective policy pledges of G20 stronger than before, but still may not be sufficient to get back on to a 2ºC trajectory by 2020…"