THE FUTURE OF FUEL CELLS

Fuel Cell Vehicles; Light Vehicles, Medium/Heavy-Duty Trucks, Transit Buses, and Hydrogen Refueling Infrastructure
Dave Hurst and Clint Wheelock, 1Q 2010 (Pike Research)

"Fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) have a number of attractive features, not the least of which is their lack of emissions, other than water and heat. However, FCVs remain a technology under development…Fuel cells (FCs) were originally developed for space programs…but are now used for a variety of different applications…

"FCs work on a principle discovered in 1838. When hydrogen (H2) comes into contact with platinum electrodes on one end and then interacts with air molecules, FCs will produce an electrical current and water. Most automotive FCs are polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) cells…[that provide] the current used to power a vehicle’s electric motor, which in most light vehicle applications is supplemented by battery power during peak power needs (such as acceleration or hill climbing). In hybrid FCVs, the FC recharges the vehicle’s battery, while in others the battery only stores energy captured from regenerative braking."

click thru for complete details on how fuel cells work

"…FCVs also require [high-pressure] H2 storage tanks…Prior to launching the vehicles in the market, safety standards will likely be established, and more research is needed…Honda is the only automaker to make a [hand-built] FCV available to the public [and only in] southern California…Many automakers have small fleets…available for the press and public to test…In 2009, eight automakers…signed a Letter of Understanding (LOU) that stated their agreement to bring FCVs to the market by 2015…[because] automakers wanted to put on political pressure on for the growth of H2 refueling stations…[Daimler AG, Honda, General Motors, Hyundai, and Toyota] are leaders in FCVs...Other manufacturers [Ford Motor Company, Kia Motors Corporation, Renault/Nissan] may soon catch up…

"Another market factor is the growth of FC transit buses. Buses are used because their high cost can be subsidized (or outright paid for) by governments, rather than individuals or businesses. Additionally, buses are easy to manage due to their set routes and maintenance facilities, and they often need only one refueling station for the vehicles."

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"Pike Research expects that, overall, FCV research will reach $4 billion in 2010, and is expected to climb to $5.13 billion globally in 2016, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.3%. This research spending is expected to grow in 2015 and 2016…[L]ight vehicle FC sales [are expected to] reach 669,597 vehicles by 2020. The United States will be the largest market for FCVs in 2020 (134,049 FCVs), followed by China (129,241 FCVs) and Germany (126,783 FCVs)…

"[G]rowth of the FCV market is balancing on two key items: the growth of H2 refueling stations and improved durability and efficiency of the FCs. Pike Research anticipates that automakers will meet their commitments, but it will be a much harder political sale to convince governments to subsidize the refueling infrastructure and gas companies to make the substantial financial commitments to build the stations. Therefore, Pike Research expects that FCVs will remain a small niche within the overall vehicle market for the first five or six years after they are introduced."