CAP&TRADE CUTS EU SPEW 10%

Deutsche Bank, BarCap see 10% drop in 2009 EU ETS emissions
Michael Szabo (w/William Hardy), March 29, 2010 (Reuters)

"Carbon emissions under the European Union's Emissions Trading Scheme fell by over 10 percent in 2009 but are expected to rebound this year as Europe's economy recovers, Deutsche Bank and Barclays Capital said…

"Deutsche bank said in an analyst note that carbon emissions from heavy industry fell to 1.9 billion tonnes last year, down 220 million tonnes from the 2.12 billion tonnes emitted in 2008, the first year of the scheme's second phase…[It expects half the drop to come back in 2010 and 2% in each of the next 2 years]…"

From Reuters. (click to enlarge)

"BarCap also…[calculated a 2009 10% drop and] expects 2010 emissions to climb back to 1.95 billion tonnes, a 2.8 percent rise.

"The European Commission is scheduled to publish preliminary 2009 emissions data for the scheme on April 1, though both analysts said the data will likely be incomplete.
Sikorski said the data's impact on EU emissions permit prices is likely to be muted…"

click to enlarge

"Deutsche Bank…expects CO2 from the EU's power sector, the 27-nation bloc's largest emitters, to have dropped by 110 million tonnes or 7.3 percent to 1.4 billion tonnes of CO2 last year…[It estimates] industrial emissions, which include those from the steel and cement sectors, to also have fallen by 110 million tonnes, or 18 percent, to 500 million tonnes of CO2.

"Last month, analysts Point Carbon estimated 2009 EU ETS emissions fell by 11 percent to 1.886 billion tonnes."