PEAK COAL

Mining the Truth on Coal Supplies; A view that the world’s leading electricity fuel—and major contributor to climate change—is running out
Mason Inman, September 8, 2010 (National Geographic)

"…A new study seeks to shake up the assumption that use of coal, the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel, is bound to continue its inexorable rise. In fact, the study’s authors predict that world coal production may reach its peak as early as next year, and then begin a permanent decline.

"[A global coal production forecast with multi-Hubbert cycle analysis], led by Tad Patzek, chairman of the Department of Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering at the University of Texas at Austin…predicts that by mid-century, the world's coal mining will supply only half as much energy as today."

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"The idea that the world will face "peak coal" as soon as 2011 flies in the face of most earlier estimates and analysis…[The World Coal Institute] ‘the use of coal will rise 60 percent over the next 20 years…[and last] for at least 119 years.’ And the U.S. Energy Information Administration…projects that coal consumption for electricity will grow more than 50 percent by 2035 unless policies are put in place to stop the growth of greenhouse gas emissions.

"…[But the Patzek study found] the world will finish off the coal that is easy to reach and high-quality…What remains will often be of lower quality, and progressively harder to [mine and deliver]…The study's prediction [of] a peak in the energy produced by global coal production—[is an estimate but if accurate]…could have a vast impact on the world economy…Coal-fired power plants supply 40 percent of the world's electricity, and energy for two-thirds of the world's steel production…Many countries are counting on coal to continue powering their economies for decades to come…"

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"…[The Patzek study] argues that the reserves estimates of the United States and other countries overstate how much coal is actually practical to mine and use…[It] notes that estimates of Illinois’ proven reserves are still high—second only to Montana in the United States—even though coal production has declined to a little more than half of what was produced there 20 years ago…[because] Illinois coal is high in sulfur…[and] utilities have shifted to buying lower-sulfur coal from the Powder River Basin of Wyoming and Montana, despite its lower heat content, as a way to meet federal regulations for control of acid rain….

"…[A]nalyses that have taken the shift to lower-quality coal into account have concluded that reserves are robust…[A] 2007…National Academy of Sciences (NAS) [study]...concluded there was sufficient coal to meet the nation’s needs at current rates of consumption for more than 100 years…However, the NAS admitted that its 2007 estimates of coal reserves were based upon methods and data that had not been reviewed or revised since the early 1970s…Patzek's study uses a version of a method developed by the legendary father of “peak oil” theory, Marion King Hubbert, to analyze coal reserves. Hubbert, at the time a Shell Oil petroleum geologist, used prior production history to correctly predict 15 years in advance that U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s…Hubbert's method, a controversial one, assumes that production follows a bell-shaped curve over time…When there are many different oil wells or coal mines operating independently, the sum of all their production tends to follow such a bell curve over time…Patzek's study is not the only one to conclude that the reserve estimates are often too high…[It] concludes with…a plea for using less energy and more efficient electricity generation…"