THE PV MATERIALS MARKETS

PV Bill of Materials Outlook: 2010-2015
February 4, 2011 (Greentech Media Research)

"…[A]nalyses [of a solar PV module’s bill of materials] have until now focused on polysilicon feedstock since it represented the bulk of the module’s cost…[W]ith the declines in polysilicon prices over the past two years beginning to level, and in light of thin-film PV’s increasing market share, supply and cost competition over PV’s complete bill of materials is mounting.

"GTM Research estimates that the cumulative market for these other PV materials…will hit $12.8 billion over the next five years…a 50% increase over the [210] market…[T]hese materials’ current cost for module manufacturers is approaching that of polysilicon feedstock…[I]ndustry players…[must] understand future cost evolution… to identify the role and business opportunities of each material."

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"…[It is] crucial to identify the role each material plays in the final [polysilicon-based] module and their respective contributions to PV manufacturing’s cost evolution…[F]or [thin film] technologies…materials have traditionally been the major contributor to the total cost of the module.

"The cost of paste is expected to rise due to its high dependence on metals such as silver, but its improved quality also increases the cell conversion efficiency…[P]aste cost in terms of $/Wp decreases over time even though the price of paste increases mainly due to increased efficiency and lower [gm/cell] usage of paste…[but] risk to this figure is most certainly skewed to the upside, as spot prices for silver are forecasted to push beyond the $25/lb level."

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"GTM Research forecasts cumulative material costs to drop 16% by 2014 for crystalline silicon modules. For thin film, GTM Research projects cumulative material costs for CdTe, CIGS and a-Si modules to fall 9%, 12%, and 16% respectively over that same time period.

"Thin film materials are estimated to be a $1.5 billion market in 2010, and this figure is projected to grow to $3.1 billion in 2014, which represents a CAGR of 19.5% during that period…[A]s one would expect, it is dominated by CdTe in 2010. Growth from 2010 to 2014 is driven largely by the increase in CIGS production; the CIGS materials market will increase from just $218 million in 2010 to $928 million in 2014."