THE ORGANIC PV MARKET

Organic Photovoltaics May Have Only Limited Potential In Solar Market
19 April 2011 (Lux Research via Solar Industry)

"Commercial uses for organic photovoltaic (OPV) modules will almost certainly materialize over the next decade, driven by unique form factors and the potential for lower costs, according to a new report from Lux Research…[but] comparatively poor conversion efficiencies and short lifetimes mean that it will not compete with conventional solar technologies, limiting its market potential…[to] $159 million in 2020.

"…OPV modules…use organic (carbon-containing) polymers or molecules to convert light to electricity. The report calculates adoption potential for OPV's two main technology categories - bulk heterojunction (BHJ) OPV devices and dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) - in five different [niche] market segments: building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV), developing world applications, defense, consumer electronics and signage…"

Dye sensitized BIPV (click to enlarge)

"…[T]otal market size addressable…[in potential market shares] for both BHJ OPV and DSSCs… reach [97 MW and $159 million in 2020] on the back of BIPV and defense…[D]efense signifies the largest market, with BIPV close behind. BHJ technology dominates early, but as flexible DSSC devices mature, these devices are expected to gain to capture 53% of the market in 2020."

Schematic of an Organic PV solar cell (click to enlarge)

"…[Three variations of] BIPV provides niches for both BHJ and DSSC…[1] flexible membranes for roofing and shade structures (e.g., awnings)…[2] solar shingles for pitched roofing, and [3] rigid windows and fade elements. BIPV overall will grow to 27 MW of demand and a $44 million market, with around two-thirds of that based on flexible membranes and most of the balance from windows and facades. BHJ takes 47% of the market here in megawatts, but only 39% in revenues.

"Defense applications are driven by portable power for soldiers. The ease of integrating OPV into certain flexible structures and the ability to pattern it could help set it apart for some applications, such as integration into tents and even uniforms, and allow it to gain some market share…In defense applications, OPV will expand to 34 MW in 2020, pulling in $64 million in revenues - split 60:40 between DSSC and BHJ..."