U.S. NOT SO SUNNY RIGHT NOW

Get ready for a 2012 reality check: Current US solar policy will leave PV market short of solar industry’s expectations
November 17, 2011 (Clear Sky Advisors)

"While the long-term market outlook for the US solar PV market is positive, 2012 will not offer suffering module manufacturers the reprieve they were hoping for…ClearSky Advisors Inc. predicts installed volume will grow 7% to 1,628 MW in 2012. However, falling equipment prices – especially for PV modules – means that overall market value for 2012 will be flat or may even drop…

"Continued overcapacity in the solar supply chain will see the cut-throat competition in the solar PV supply-chain continue, with average selling prices for modules continuing to fall at least for the first part of 2012. Not until 2014 will market conditions improve markedly…"

(from Clear Sky Advisors - click to enlarge)

"In the short-term…opportunities [will be] in carefully targeted markets. The diversity of state-level solar policies means that the US market must be treated as many local markets – each with its own set of policies and conditions that determine the magnitude of the local opportunity…

"…[M]arket growth in 2015 will be increasingly dominated by utility scale projects…[D]ecreases in equipment prices will make solar power cost competitive in certain areas toward the end of the forecast period…The West will remain the largest regional market…California and New Jersey will be the single most important states…even if both states will face intermittent market disruption…"