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Reaching New Heights: Cumulative PV Demand to Double Again by 2015

Michael Barker, March 15, 2013 (SolarBuzz)

“Although [solar PV] end-market demand in 2012 did not achieve the levels many had hoped for, it still set a new record in terms of annual installed capacity…reaching a 100 GW cumulative installation level for PV systems.

“…[The recent trend continued of] cumulative demand doubling every two years. It took more than 30 years for global cumulative demand to reach 2 GW but only four to surpass 4 GW in 2004. Since then, the industry has seen cumulative demand doubling every two years…Annual growth rates have been declining, however, and the next doubling of cumulative demand is anticipated to take slightly longer at three (rather than two) years, under current policy and installed pricing conditions.”

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“This trend has been driven first by attractive policy mechanisms designed to drive downstream demand and, more recently, by rapid price declines throughout the upstream PV value-chain…[P]olicies have…been adjusted downwards, thereby slowing the pace of growth. However, given the maturity of the industry and the potential for continuing cost reductions, the PV industry is still poised for strong long-term growth and will increasingly be seen as a major source of power generation…

“…[U]nder upside scenario forecasts, the market could…[double] again in both 2014 and in 2016, and exceeding 450 GW of cumulative installed capacity by 2017.”

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