THE 2-WHEELED EV

Electric Two-Wheel Vehicles; Electric Bicycles, Mopeds, Scooters, and Motorcycles:
Market Analysis and Forecasts
Dave Hurst and Clint Wheelock, 1Q 2010 (Pike Research)

"Electric two-wheel vehicles come in a variety of forms with electric bicycles (e-bikes), scooters (e-scooters), and motorcycles (e-motorcycles) being the most common. Most countries define e-bikes as vehicles that have pedals and can be human-powered as well as powered by a low-powered motor with limited speed capabilities. China, however, does not require e-bikes to have pedals, but limits them simply to 20 kph (12 mph)…

"The demographics of those using e-bikes align with key socioeconomic, demographic, and behavioral trends…In North America, consumers tend to be baby-boomers (age 45 to 65) and affluent…In many Middle Eastern, African and Latin American countries, the consumers tend to be working and young. The United Nations forecasts substantial growth…within populations aged 15 to 64."

click to enlarge

"Other trends contributing to the adoption of electric two-wheel vehicles include the growth of e-bikes as a fitness tool in North America and Europe. In Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, increased urbanization and growing wealth contribute to the need for (and ability to purchase) reliable transportation…[P]eople increasingly accept electric two-wheel vehicles as capable forms of transportation…[and] the cost of ownership…remains low [enough so that]…the market is likely to remain strong…

"One of the most important barriers to the market…is the lack of an established distribution channel…[M]anufacturers are trying to find a combination of independent dealers, mass retailers, and online sales…[This remains] one of the most difficult aspects of the electric two-wheel marketplace."

Plug-in 2-wheelers at a Shanghai rally. (click to enlarge)

"Pike Research anticipates that the global market for such vehicles is poised for strong growth…China is currently the largest marketplace…commanding 98% of the global market in 2009. China’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.2% between 2009 and 2016 will contribute to Asia-Pacific’s sales of 78.6 million electric two-wheel vehicles in 2016 (with a CAGR of 8.9% for the region overall). Outside Asia, Pike Research forecasts Western Europe as having the largest market for electric two-wheel vehicles with 1.941 million vehicles for a CAGR of 17.3% between 2009 and 2016.

"In the e-bike market, the Western European region will garner a disproportionate share of revenue ($2.4 billion in 2016), relative to unit sales. Western Europe will account for 3.4% of the global e-bike marketplace by 2016, generating 12% of the revenue from the global market. A similar, albeit smaller scale, market dynamic will exist in North America by 2016, when North America’s share of global sales will be 1.9%, which will represent 5.6% of the global revenue ($1.2 billion in e-bike revenue in 2016). Overall, Pike Research sees astrong opportunity for growth…"