THE MARKET TO PRONOUNCE ON NEW ENERGY

Greentech IPO Scorecard: Tesla, Solyndra, Codexis; For better or for worse, 2010 looks to be the year of the greentech IPO.
Eric Wesoff, February 8, 2010 (Greentech Media)

"…53 companies filed paperwork to hold initial public offerings in Q4 2009 -- the highest number of new registrants in a single quarter since 2007…[T]here are more deals in the IPO pipeline than there have been for more than two years…And a number of those IPOs happen to be high-profile offerings in the greentech sector…2010 [looks like] the year of the Greentech IPO…[Among the most interesting are Solyndra, Tesla Motors, Codexis and Jinko Solar Holdings]…

"Solyndra's innovative photovoltaic glass cylinders are…full of vacuum, silicone and thin-film CIGS in a relatively low-efficiency configuration…Solyndra's VC investors…[say] the real value for Solyndra is in the cost savings in the Balance of System. Will the institutional investors who drive the success of an IPO buy the Solyndra BoS story? …[T]he cost per watt of c-Si and FSLR CdTe continues to fall…[and] the cost of Solyndra's product seems somewhat bloated…A lot rests on the shoulders of Solyndra: the perception of the viability of CIGS technology, the perception of the viability of VC investment in solar manufacturing, and the skill of the DOE in picking technology winners…"

A Solyndra rolled solar rooftop power plant. (click to enlarge)

"Like Solyndra…Tesla is a "story stock" …[and] anticipates "continuing losses for at least the foreseeable future." … Tesla stand[s] as proxy for the EV vison, Solyndra for the promise of new solar technologies…Tesla reports having sold 937 cars through December 2009 to customers in 18 countries…[It] has booked 2,000 reservations for the $57,400 Model S, the all-electric sedan that enters volume production in 2012…[It] will offer a variety of range options, from 160 miles to 300 miles on a single charge…Major investors [includes] Elon Musk, Al Wahada Capital, a fund owned by the power and water authority of Abu Dhabi and Blackstar Investco, an investment arm of Daimler…Will institutional investors back a lossy luxury car vendor with an unhealthy dependence on government loan guarantees?

"…Codexis is funded by CMEA, Shell and CTTV, the investment arm of Chevron…The firm's biocatalysts are used in the pharmaceutical industry, but the greentech angle is the deal that Codexis has with Shell to produce commercially viable biofuels from cellulosic biomass. Other green applications for their product include carbon management, water treatment and "green" chemicals…Their advanced biofuels program focuses on: (1) developing biocatalysts to convert cellulosic biomass into sugars; and (2) converting these sugars into two advanced biofuels, cellulosic ethanol and biohydrocarbon diesel...Codexis has the advantage of looking at several target markets and the luxury of some very large and important customers…"

click to enlarge

"[Jinko Solar Holding Co. Ltd.] is a fast-growing, vertically integrated solar supplier with more than 400 customers and a deep relationship with troubled solar aspirant Hoku. Jinko Solar Holdings is first out of the gate and expected to begin trading on the NYSE on February 10.

"Other greentech firms that have a chance at the public market in 2010 and 2011 are LED maker Bridgelux, biofuel producer Amyris, PV micro-inverter firm Enphase Energy, CIGS thin-film producer Nanosolar, and stealthy natural gas-powered fuel cell firm Bloom Energy…It will be an interesting year."