DON’T WORRY ABOUT LITHIUM

Don't believe a word about electric cars and the coming lithium shortage
Shelley DuBois, July 12, 2010 (Fortune via CNN Money)

"Shai Agassi wants to put the world into electric cars whose batteries can be swapped out at one of his futuristic 'gas' stations. But just as the cells in flashlights and laptops need lithium to run, so do -- swappable batteries or not -- electric cars. And some are now saying that will make lithium, in our increasingly battery-dependent society, increasingly hard to come by.

"There are rumblings in the press that the auto industry switching from petroleum to lithium is simply shifting from one finite resource to another, and even that the U.S.'s real reasons for invading Afghanistan were to secure its massive deposits of the alkali metal…[S]keptics think there might be trouble accessing enough lithium…[But] the United States Geological Survey (USGS) [says] current producers are providing enough lithium to fuel the projected number of electric vehicles for the next ten years. After that, the major factor that will drive competition between players in the energy industry might not be mining lithium, but recycling it."

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"It doesn't make sense, financially, to recycle lithium now. Producers are mining way [more than is demanded]...Lithium isn't currently [much] used for car batteries…[I]t's used for batteries in laptops, cell phones and cordless tools…[which slowed] during the recession, which meant a surplus of lithium existed in 2009, along with a fall in price…Lithium will [only] surge is if electric vehicles roll out successfully in massive enough numbers…

"Agassi wants to be the man behind that surge. His company, Better Place, is based on the principle that manufacturers don't need to wait for battery technology to improve to roll out consumer-grade electric cars. Instead, Agassi hopes to build networks of switching stations where drivers can change used batteries for fresh ones much like they fill up at gas stations now."



"…Better Place has partnered with car [and other] companies…Israel should have a fully operative system by next year…Renault [will] build 100,000 electric cars for Israel and Denmark by 2011…[There are plans for] networks in Australia and Hawaii…[I]t looks like lithium isn't one of the limiting factors…As of 2009, the U.S. had 2.5 million tons of lithium in reserve, and there were an estimated 23 million tons in other countries…Lithium-ion batteries for cars only need under 15 kilograms of the element per battery pack…

"Reports of large lithium reserves in Bolivia and Afghanistan have caused a stir in the media…But foreign miners are unlikely to take the element from either place. Bolivian president Evo Morales won't sell Bolivian lithium, and Afghanistan is still too dangerous…But if the electric car industry takes off, people won't need to tap into new sources of lithium for about ten years…[and that's] assuming that the technology doesn't improve to make Lithium-ion batteries more efficient…[And lithium] can be recycled…[T]he people who will hold the power in the lithium industry of the future will be the companies with the best recycling technology…"