DENYING CLIMATE CHANGE DENIERS

Climate Change: Addressing the Major Skeptic Arguments
September 8, 2010 (Deutsche Bank)

"…For most of this year, the volume of [the public debate about climate change science] has turned way up as the 'skeptics' launched a determined assault on the climate findings accepted by the overwhelming majority of the scientific community. Unfortunately, the increased noise has only made it harder for people to untangle the arguments and form their own opinions. This is problematic because the way the public's views are shaped is critical to future political action on climate change.

"For investors in particular, the implications are huge. While there are many arguments in favor of clean energy, water and sustainable agriculture - for instance, energy security, economic growth, and job opportunities – we at [Deutsche Bank Climate Change Advisors (DBCCA)] have always said that the science is one essential foundation of the whole climate change investment thesis. Navigating the scientific debate is therefore vitally important…"

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"…[W]e asked our advisors at the Columbia Climate Center at the Earth Institute, Columbia University, to examine as many as possible of the major skeptic claims in the light of the latest peer reviewed scientific literature and to weigh the arguments…Although the scientific community has already addressed [them]…there is still a public perception that scientists have been dismissive of the skeptic viewpoint…The result is, we believe, a balanced, expert, and detailed assessment of the scientific case for climate change that will help investors…

"…[The clear conclusion] is that the primary claims of the skeptics do not undermine the assertion that human-made climate change is already happening and is a serious long term threat. Indeed, the recent publication on the State of the Climate by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), analyzing over thirty indicators, or climate variables, concludes that the Earth is warming and that the past decade was the warmest on record. Quantifying cause and effect or projecting future conditions is always incomplete in a system as complex as Earth's climate…Conclusions are thus presented in terms of probabilities…This uncertainty is not always adequately explained…can appear to be a challenge…[but] is an inevitable component in our understanding of any system…"

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"To us, the most persuasive argument in support of climate change is that the basic laws of physics dictate that increasing carbon dioxide levels in the earth's atmosphere produce warming…The only way that warming can be mitigated by natural processes is if there are countervailing 'feedback mechanisms'…A key finding of the current research is that there has so far been no evidence of such countervailing factors. In fact, most observed and anticipated feedback mechanisms are actually working to amplify the warming process, not reduce it.

"Simply put, the science shows us that climate change due to emissions of greenhouse gases is a serious problem. Furthermore, due to the persistence of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the lag in response of the climate system, there is a very high probability that we are already heading towards a future where warming will persist for thousands of years. Failing to insure against that high probability does not seem a gamble worth taking."