SUN-MAKING EQPMT IS HOT

The Road Ahead: PV Manufacturing Expansion And Equipment Purchases
21 April 2011 (Solar Industry)

"Following a year of favorable market demand growth (139%), PV cell manufacturers have embarked upon aggressive expansion plans in support of ambitious shipment guidance for this year. Consequently, the scale of expansions announced is creating a $15.2 billion revenue opportunity for PV equipment suppliers this year - an increase of 41% year over year (Y/Y), according to a new report from Solarbuzz.

"Although Y/Y growth for crystalline silicon (c-Si) equipment spending (including the ingot, wafer, cell and module manufacturing stages) for this year would amount to 31%, thin-film spending would grow by an incredible 71%. Underpinning this thin-film growth is a resurgence of investments in amorphous silicon and copper indium gallium diselenide technologies, which account for 78% of planned thin-film capacity expansions."

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"Tier-one expansions remain dominated by aggressive schedules announced by publicly listed Chinese c-Si producers, followed by cell producers in Taiwan and thin-film leader First Solar. Companies with revised year-end nameplate capacity targets include JA Solar (expanded to 3 GW), Trina Solar (1.9 GW), Neo Solar Power (1.8 GW) and Jinko Solar (1.5 GW).

"In the past 12 months, manufacturers in China and Taiwan accounted for 82% of the $3.6 billion revenues allocated to new c-Si cell equipment worldwide…"

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"Adding to the c-Si expansion activity, thin-film manufacturing capacity is scheduled to grow by 70% between the first quarter of this year (Q1'11) and the first quarter of 2012 (Q1'12) as the second thin-film investment cycle draws to a conclusion. Within this period, 65 thin-film expansion phases are projected to be implemented, with a combined nameplate capacity of 4.8 GW…

"Capacity expansions are consistent with leading cell manufacturers' guiding 2011 shipment growth rates of 55%. However, market demand is forecast to increase by only 12% this year, as incentive tariff cuts are implemented across major European markets…This imbalance is expected to have a profound impact on the equipment supply chain, starting with a reset of capacity growth plans during the second half of the year (2H'11)…With tool lead times typically three to six months, the full impact of these changes will be felt hardest during 2012, Solarbuzz predicts…"