WHERE IN THE WORLD THE SUN WILL RISE

PV Revenue Growth in 2H’12 Stimulated by US and Asia Pacific Pipelines; Shift Towards Emerging PV Markets Outside Europe Highlights Importance of Diversified Downstream Strategies

14 May 2012 (Solarbuzz)

“Solar photovoltaic (PV) demand during 2H’12 will see increasing contributions from emerging markets in North America and Asia Pacific, with 60% of PV demand coming from these non-European regions according to new research…[from] NPD Solarbuzz…This represents an important change for the PV industry, indicative of longer-term trends in which the share of global PV demand stimulated by European countries will decline. While 50% of global demand during 2H’11 came from Germany and Italy, 54% of demand in the final quarter of 2012 is forecast to come from China, India, Japan and the US…

“During 2H’12, utility-scale projects will accelerate PV growth across North America and Asia Pacific, representing 57% of demand in those regions. To realize projects on-time and within budget, the role of project developers will become increasingly important, especially in accessing finance and coordinating necessary permits and EPC (engineering, procurement, and construction) providers. Downstream companies that can provide monitoring, performance guarantees or project maintenance to ensure the quality of electricity delivered will also benefit from this segment growth.”

click to enlarge

“Large ground-mount projects (>5 MW in capacity) across China and India are forecast to dominate Asia Pacific demand during 2H’12. Over 2.2 GW are expected to be completed in Q4'12, ahead of year-end policy expiration dates…PV demand in Japan during 2H’12 is forecast to exceed 1.1 GW, representing 74% growth compared to 2H’11…Although the impact of the cash grant will decline, more than 60% of 2012 US demand will occur during 2H’12, driven by utility-scale projects towards RPS (renewable portfolios standard) compliance in California and other states, as well as residential lease expansions to the east coast…

“Key European market segment changes from Q1’12 to Q2’12 include a rise in ground-mount share from 28% to 33%, residential share rising from 19% to 22%, and building-mount share declining from 53% to 44%. However, 2H’12 will be characterized by declines in the ground-mount sector due to the shift in policy focus, especially across more mature markets…”

Tweet